Results Open Thread

Well, the polls have just closed. The results will start trickling in within the hour - as they come in I'll post my thoughts in the comment section under this post. The early results - depending on where they are - can tell us some things and I'll let you know. Here we go - this is like watching the Super Bowl for me!

Election Day!

It's election day - listen to all the fun rumours! Valentine Grimes has been arrested for carrying blank ballots (in Long Island no less - where there is no PLP on the ballot???)! Here in Abaco, someone has been arrested in Dundas Town for the same thing! Someone is planning to shoot Hubert Ingraham this afternoon! If you hear it, put it on the Coconut Telagraph in 25 words or less. Who knows how many more fun rumours you will hear before the day it out. Everyone's excited and running around with flags of the two main parties fluttering from their vehicles.

I voted at 9:15AM - my polling division is a small one, so my wife and I went right in. They actually moved it from it's regular location yesterday - we didn't find out until we went to the old one. No matter - it was just down the road. Got rid of most of the ink when I got home and now in my office half day.

I maintain that this election is going to be close - of the seats I called last night, Fox Hill was the one that gave me the most pause. I put it in the FNM column when really if I went by numbers and history only I would have left it PLP. It's just...I have a feeling about that one - Fred Mitchell is a polarizing figure where George Mackey was very much the opposite. My head said one thing and my gut said another and I went with my gut. Not that I do NOT make predictions with my heart - I put what I think will happen, not what I wish would. The PLP had a large crowd last night at Clifford Park - probably a record for them. Not as big as the FNM's mind you, but huge none the less. Those people you saw will be voting PLP just as those in red will be voting FNM. Let's all pray for peace no matter what the outcome.

I'll probably have a blog entry when the results start comming in with me calling seats as info becomes available. Doubt I'll be able to beat any of the stations, but based on some early numbers I can probably give some insight. Depends on how fast I get the numbers in.

Final Predictions!

So this is the post that will get me in trouble after the election because I’m bound to get a few things wrong! This isn’t a betting pool for the Oscars – just me sticking my neck out and calling all 41 seats as I see them now. If I get them all right, I’ll be shocked – there is so much uncertainty in this sort of thing and unlike in other countries, there is no reliable polling data. The Worker’s Party was the only outfit I know of that even HAD a poll and somehow I don’t think Rodney Moncur is an ideal statistician.

Heres what I see right now; a moderate sized FNM wave in Nassau with some minor spillover into the Out Islands. That means that the tossup seats are likely to break for the FNM, they will pick up some of the seats that were leaning PLP and perhaps even one or two of the likely PLP ones, but not the safe ones. So here we go:

For the PLP: Bain Town & Grants Town, Pinewood, Kennedy, St. Thomas Moore, Golden Gates, St. Cecelia, Englerston, Farm Road & Centerville, Yamacraw, West End & Bimini, Cat Island & San Salvador, Exuma and South Eleuthera for a total of 13

For the FNM: Blue Hills, Fort Charlotte, Garden Hills, Elizabeth, Clifton, Killarney, Golden Isles, Carmichael, Mt. Moriah, Bamboo Town, South Beach, Marathon, Seabreeze, Fox Hill, Montagu, St. Annes, North Abaco, South Abaco, High Rock, Pineridge, Marco City, Lucaya, Eight Mile Rock, North Andros, MICAL, North Eleuthera and Long Island for a total of 27

And Mr. Bastian wins South Andros! Feel free to crow if I’m very wrong.

Big Mo

Later this afternoon, I'm going to post my actual predictions. One thing seems clear, though - the momentum is with the FNM. I say that not as someone who is FNM but as someone who is looking at the crowds and hearing the buzz.
The FNM has been fooled by crowds and buzz before - it's possible that this will happen again, but I just don't see how. Nassau is the key and the simple fact is that the FNM is getting bigger and more enthusiastic crowds.
Not that the PLP isn't getting big crowds as well - they are and their supporters are keyed up as well. I don't think that they are going down without a fight and I don't really expect a huge wave like '97 and '02.

SOUTH ANDROS (UPDATE AGAIN!)

Okay, okay, I just have trouble making up my mind on this one. That and the fact that new information keeps reaching me. Two things are making me change yet again. First of all, it seems clear to me that the FNM is not pushing hard for this seat. Their base voters will support the party's candidate, but there isn't a strong push for the floating voters. I think it's clear that they would rather Mr. Bastian retain his seat than the PLP win it, but don't want to do what the PLP did in Long Island and Bamboo Town which is to simply not run anyone. They probably don't want to be tied too closely to Bastian because his reputation is not that great - smart, really.
Also, from my man on the ground, Bastian signs, T-shirts and flags are everywhere. Posters don't vote, but people wearing T-shirts and flying flags do. The PLP should be able to win this seat. I would think that they NEED to win this seat this time. But I don't think they will.

Ranking: LEAN INDEPENDENT