Final Predictions!

So this is the post that will get me in trouble after the election because I’m bound to get a few things wrong! This isn’t a betting pool for the Oscars – just me sticking my neck out and calling all 41 seats as I see them now. If I get them all right, I’ll be shocked – there is so much uncertainty in this sort of thing and unlike in other countries, there is no reliable polling data. The Worker’s Party was the only outfit I know of that even HAD a poll and somehow I don’t think Rodney Moncur is an ideal statistician.

Heres what I see right now; a moderate sized FNM wave in Nassau with some minor spillover into the Out Islands. That means that the tossup seats are likely to break for the FNM, they will pick up some of the seats that were leaning PLP and perhaps even one or two of the likely PLP ones, but not the safe ones. So here we go:

For the PLP: Bain Town & Grants Town, Pinewood, Kennedy, St. Thomas Moore, Golden Gates, St. Cecelia, Englerston, Farm Road & Centerville, Yamacraw, West End & Bimini, Cat Island & San Salvador, Exuma and South Eleuthera for a total of 13

For the FNM: Blue Hills, Fort Charlotte, Garden Hills, Elizabeth, Clifton, Killarney, Golden Isles, Carmichael, Mt. Moriah, Bamboo Town, South Beach, Marathon, Seabreeze, Fox Hill, Montagu, St. Annes, North Abaco, South Abaco, High Rock, Pineridge, Marco City, Lucaya, Eight Mile Rock, North Andros, MICAL, North Eleuthera and Long Island for a total of 27

And Mr. Bastian wins South Andros! Feel free to crow if I’m very wrong.