Results Open Thread

Well, the polls have just closed. The results will start trickling in within the hour - as they come in I'll post my thoughts in the comment section under this post. The early results - depending on where they are - can tell us some things and I'll let you know. Here we go - this is like watching the Super Bowl for me!

Election Day!

It's election day - listen to all the fun rumours! Valentine Grimes has been arrested for carrying blank ballots (in Long Island no less - where there is no PLP on the ballot???)! Here in Abaco, someone has been arrested in Dundas Town for the same thing! Someone is planning to shoot Hubert Ingraham this afternoon! If you hear it, put it on the Coconut Telagraph in 25 words or less. Who knows how many more fun rumours you will hear before the day it out. Everyone's excited and running around with flags of the two main parties fluttering from their vehicles.

I voted at 9:15AM - my polling division is a small one, so my wife and I went right in. They actually moved it from it's regular location yesterday - we didn't find out until we went to the old one. No matter - it was just down the road. Got rid of most of the ink when I got home and now in my office half day.

I maintain that this election is going to be close - of the seats I called last night, Fox Hill was the one that gave me the most pause. I put it in the FNM column when really if I went by numbers and history only I would have left it PLP. It's just...I have a feeling about that one - Fred Mitchell is a polarizing figure where George Mackey was very much the opposite. My head said one thing and my gut said another and I went with my gut. Not that I do NOT make predictions with my heart - I put what I think will happen, not what I wish would. The PLP had a large crowd last night at Clifford Park - probably a record for them. Not as big as the FNM's mind you, but huge none the less. Those people you saw will be voting PLP just as those in red will be voting FNM. Let's all pray for peace no matter what the outcome.

I'll probably have a blog entry when the results start comming in with me calling seats as info becomes available. Doubt I'll be able to beat any of the stations, but based on some early numbers I can probably give some insight. Depends on how fast I get the numbers in.

Final Predictions!

So this is the post that will get me in trouble after the election because I’m bound to get a few things wrong! This isn’t a betting pool for the Oscars – just me sticking my neck out and calling all 41 seats as I see them now. If I get them all right, I’ll be shocked – there is so much uncertainty in this sort of thing and unlike in other countries, there is no reliable polling data. The Worker’s Party was the only outfit I know of that even HAD a poll and somehow I don’t think Rodney Moncur is an ideal statistician.

Heres what I see right now; a moderate sized FNM wave in Nassau with some minor spillover into the Out Islands. That means that the tossup seats are likely to break for the FNM, they will pick up some of the seats that were leaning PLP and perhaps even one or two of the likely PLP ones, but not the safe ones. So here we go:

For the PLP: Bain Town & Grants Town, Pinewood, Kennedy, St. Thomas Moore, Golden Gates, St. Cecelia, Englerston, Farm Road & Centerville, Yamacraw, West End & Bimini, Cat Island & San Salvador, Exuma and South Eleuthera for a total of 13

For the FNM: Blue Hills, Fort Charlotte, Garden Hills, Elizabeth, Clifton, Killarney, Golden Isles, Carmichael, Mt. Moriah, Bamboo Town, South Beach, Marathon, Seabreeze, Fox Hill, Montagu, St. Annes, North Abaco, South Abaco, High Rock, Pineridge, Marco City, Lucaya, Eight Mile Rock, North Andros, MICAL, North Eleuthera and Long Island for a total of 27

And Mr. Bastian wins South Andros! Feel free to crow if I’m very wrong.

Big Mo

Later this afternoon, I'm going to post my actual predictions. One thing seems clear, though - the momentum is with the FNM. I say that not as someone who is FNM but as someone who is looking at the crowds and hearing the buzz.
The FNM has been fooled by crowds and buzz before - it's possible that this will happen again, but I just don't see how. Nassau is the key and the simple fact is that the FNM is getting bigger and more enthusiastic crowds.
Not that the PLP isn't getting big crowds as well - they are and their supporters are keyed up as well. I don't think that they are going down without a fight and I don't really expect a huge wave like '97 and '02.

SOUTH ANDROS (UPDATE AGAIN!)

Okay, okay, I just have trouble making up my mind on this one. That and the fact that new information keeps reaching me. Two things are making me change yet again. First of all, it seems clear to me that the FNM is not pushing hard for this seat. Their base voters will support the party's candidate, but there isn't a strong push for the floating voters. I think it's clear that they would rather Mr. Bastian retain his seat than the PLP win it, but don't want to do what the PLP did in Long Island and Bamboo Town which is to simply not run anyone. They probably don't want to be tied too closely to Bastian because his reputation is not that great - smart, really.
Also, from my man on the ground, Bastian signs, T-shirts and flags are everywhere. Posters don't vote, but people wearing T-shirts and flying flags do. The PLP should be able to win this seat. I would think that they NEED to win this seat this time. But I don't think they will.

Ranking: LEAN INDEPENDENT

Independents and the BDM

You will note that in most cases, I did not bother to list the minor independent candidates as well as those running for the BDM. It's not just that I don't consider that any of them have a substantive chance to win (and I don't) but that I don't, in fact, even have all of their names. I was out of the country on nomination day and so didn't have the list in the paper of everyone. I was going to list the BDM anyway, but when I went to their website I found that they didn't have up to date information on their candidates. That is, I knew a couple had not been able to nominate because of mix-ups, but they were still listed. Even worse, most were described with the same one-line sentence - "ToeJoe Smith is a dynamic individual". You mean to tell me that whoever put together their web site could not take the time to find out even basic information about their candidates? Their age, job, nothing? I dedicded that if they were not going to bother with that, I was not going to mention their quixotic run for office, either.
What is it with these third parties - at least the CDR has a genuine MP as it's leader and they couldn't save a single deposit. The NDM tried it in '67 and got shut out. My personal favorite was the Vanguard Party that somehow thought Bahamians would vote for a group of people who went around calling each other 'Comrade'. Other than the FNM/BDP split in '77, I can not think of one case in the last 35 years where an third party candidate (other than a true independent) has saved their deposit. Yet still they run - more power to them, I say, but if you want me to take you seriously, take yourself seriously.
And if there are any Vanguard Party members left out there (Comrade Carey?) - Dare to Struggle - Dare to Win!

South Abaco rallies

The FNM and the PLP both held mass rallies in South Abaco over the weekend. So who have the bigger turnout? It seemed to me that both sides had the largest numbers ever seen for their parties. The shape of the FNM’s rally site was deep and narrow – the PLP’s was wide and shallow, making it hard to judge. So I did what any good map guy would do – I determined the square footage of the areas. Easy for me to do – I have survey maps on nearly every part of Marsh Harbour. I was at both rallies – the density per square foot of the people was about the same. So who had the bigger crowd, then? The FNM did – if anyone really wants to see my math, I’ll sent it along.

What was notable was the PLP crowd had very few white people in it. I dislike talking about race in Bahamian politics – it’s so overblown and often racism gets mixed up in it – but this is about demographics. You simply can’t win in South Abaco without a large number of both black and white voters. I’d been to PLP rallies here before, of course – and I’ve never seen such a low ratio of white voters. I was rather surprised to be honest – I expected Gary to have more visible support from among the white community. If this is a sign that Edison Key succeeded in bringing large numbers of white PLP’s to the FNM with him, it’s one more nail in Mr. Sawyer’s coffin.

Rallies

Rallies don’t vote – people do. Of course, rallies are made up of people who DO vote but there is a difference. The FNM has had some problems in the past with this – their candidates in the suburban seats on Nassau (and those seats are the key to winning the election) get up at a rally and see the thousands and thousands and think that there is no way that they can loose. This had led to those candidates running some sloppy and lazy campaigns and losing seats that they should have won.

I say this because based on what you see at the rallies, you would expect an FNM victory is a sure thing. Both sides are drawing huge numbers, but it’s clear that the FNM is getting the larger turnout. I think that the FNM has learned not to count on large rallies to pull them over the finish line – I’m sure Hubert Ingraham knows it.

I think this short election season is going to play to the FNM’s advantage – because the seats were cut so late their candidates can honestly say that they’ve had less than two months of knowing where exactly they would be running. On the other hand, other than one small area out east, all of New Providence was represented by the PLP – those MP’s who did not do a good job of covering their constituencies (and there are always some) will have hurt the PLP’s chances in the areas they represented. The FNM seems to have the momentum and the clock is running out. As long as the people who the FNM nominated for the key seats are out there working hard, the FNM should capture the majority.

SOUTH ANDROS (UPDATED)

I had rated this seat Leaning Independent, but I'm changing it. This is for two reasons - I've gotten some reports from the ground there by someone whose instincts I trust and also because I think that being and independent is a big disadvantage in this election cycle. From 1972 to now, there were only two cycles that independents managed to win seats - '87 and '02 and there were very specific reasons for those cases and none of those conditions exist today. The FNM's base in the seat is about 25-30% of the voters - I predict the winner will get about 40%, but I'm now thinking it's going to be the PLP.

Ranking: LEAN PLP

New Providence Roundup

Well, counting the seats that makes 12 for the FNM (3 safe, 4 likely and 5 leaning) and 11 for the PLP (3 save, 2 likely and 5 leaning) with two toss ups (both with a very slight FNM advantage. You need 21 to win, so if you add in the 9 FNM seats from the Out Islands, you only just get that number. The PLP only needs to switch a few of those seats to win and that's quite doable. Really, the battleground is the suburbs on Nassau. The PLP will win their Over The Hill base and the FNM will capture the ends of the island - all the rest will be fought for.

One thing to note - in the old days, there were more Over The Hill seats thus the PLP had a larger base. Demographics have changed and there are only four true Over The Hill seats left while the FNM's base has expanded. Combined with their stronger position in the Out Islands this gives them a very slight advantage. In further posts, I'll give you specific polling divisions to watch for on election night so you can tell how various seats (and the overall election) are going. Stay tuned!

BLUE HILLS

PLP: Leslie Miller
FNM: Sidney S. Collie

Ever since the seat was created in 1982 there has either been a Foulkes or a Miller on the ballot. I put Dion Foulkes on the 'deserved to lose' list in '02 for screwing up the FNM's campaign so badly. There's no doubt that this is a swing seat. The FNM won it in '82 only to lose it in '87 - the only seat that they lost control of that election. One wonders why Mr. Foulkes didn't try again - but nevertheless, this remains a hard seat for either side. In a close election, it will come down to the wire - if the wind favors one side or the other, that will be the party to take this seat. I think there's just enough going the FNM's way to provide them with a little edge here.

Ranking: TOSS UP (ADVANTAGE FNM)

FORT CHAROLOTTE

PLP: Alfred Sears
FNM: Michael Barnett

I looked at looked at this seat. Other than the fact that they won it in '02, I can't find much good news for the PLP. The boundaries have not changed much - one little sliver that got put into Killarney - but all the numbers seem to put the FNM in the driver's seat. They very nearly won it in '87 and did take it in '92 (when it was called St. Agnes and was actually more PLP). As the seat has been shifted further west, there's no real inner city areas left thus the PLP has no base polling divisions to start with. I think Mr. Sears is in real trouble here - he's going to need a strong PLP wind at his back to keep from getting knocked over and I don't see him getting it.

Ranking: LIKELY FNM

GARDEN HILLS

PLP: Veronica Owens
FNM: Brensil Rolle

This seat keeps getting pushed westward. From where it was in 1992 to where it is now, there is no overlap - if you threw down the old Garden Hills seat on the map the two would not even touch. That means that you have to look at the polling divisions that make up the seat as it exists now. Since '02, the seat has lost a PLP polling division to Englerston, Mount Moriah and St. Celilia. That's a margin that the PLP can ill afford to give up here, especially since they moved toward the FNM west. As I have said elsewhere, you have to work a suburban seat to win it, but if the FNM candidate has done his job, he should be the next MP for this area.

A question - what does 'Garden Hills' refer to? If the seat included an area known as Garden Hills in 92, it cannot include them now. Not that this ever stopped people - and the seat of Blue Hills does not currently include the Blue Hills, either.

Ranking: LEAN FNM

BAIN TOWN AND GRANTS TOWN

PLP: Bernard Nottage
FNM: David Jordine
IND: C Moss

Yes - big fight in Bain Town. Confession time - Bernard Nottage is my favorite PLP. I felt that if they had made him leader in the late '90's we'd have all been better off. I think he's smart, fair, hard working and...best of all...NOT A LAWYER! I had hoped that his quixotic attempt to found a third party might succeed against all the odds, but like so many who have tried before him, he fell short in that goal. I understand why he came back to the PLP though I was hoping he'd join the FNM. If the PLP doesn't win the election, expect a bloody fight to replace Mr. Christie as leader and my money will be on Dr. Nottage. But for him to be in the running, he has to win. Will he?

Okay, the FNM won Bain Town in 1992 even without a big wave - good job by Gregory Williams who worked hard for that victory and held the seat in 1997. But Over The Hill continues to shrink and it got merged with Grants Town - one seat the FNM never managed to win. Few doubted the PLP would win big in '02 and they did. But the conflict came from the fact that two PLP seats were combined into one and two people had been promised nominations. Rev. Moss accepted the compromise that was offered him, but the simple fact is that he was lied to. I doubt that at the time they said it, Mr. Christe and Mr. Robers deliberatly lied - I suspect at that time they meant what they said. But Rev. Moss took them at their word and when they found it convinient to change their minds, they did so. Here, I think, is Rev. Moss' mistake. Clearly, he sat back and waited for the nomination to be handed to him. He should have been working the seat - establishing strong ties with the PLP generals so that if anyone tried to take the seat from him, there would have been a big local protest. The fact that the branch asked for Dr. Nottage shows that Moss' support among the strong and dedicated PLP's isn't very high. Clearly, Mr. Christie felt he could afford for Rev. Moss to run independent and still hold the seat or else he would have put Dr. Nottage elsewhere. Really, I think he's a better fit in the suburbs anyway.

The big question is if Rev. Moss passes the test of being credible enough to win - if not enough people think that he is not, he'll be lucky to get more than 200 votes. Those votes will all come from the PLP and so the FNM should hope that he does well. In fact, they should get some of their money people to quietly fund him, but they should have done that in the last election with the CDR and they didn't. I don't see Moss getting enough traction and without that, he can't steal enough votes for the FNM to win.

Ranking: LIKELY PLP

PINEWOOD

PLP: Allyson Maynard-Gibson
FNM: Kwasi Thompson

Another woman who knows her stuff - the daughter of Sir Lynden's other deputy leader. The difference is that she's in a suburban seat not an Over The Hill one. It'll come down to who has worked the hardest and that does favor Mrs. Maynard-Gibson somewhat since she's the incumbent. This area has grown a lot - the areas to the east, west and south lead toward the FNM but I'd have to say this one is going to go the other way.

Ranking: LEAN PLP

KENNEDY

PLP: Kenyatta Gibson
FNM: Michael Turnquest

I thought the FNM had this one in the bag in '02 - they had come so close in '97 and they were facing a PLP split in the seat. In fact, the boudary cuts for this particular constituency had favored the PLP and Dr. Nottage (running for his new CDR party) was unable to mount a serious challenge. It hasn't changed a great deal - they did cut out one little PLP area to throw into Seabreeze and moved the western boundary to East Street, but this still looks like a PLP seat to me. They were able to hold it even during the FNM's wave in '97 and since then it's been made more PLP. I'd be shocked to see the FNM pull this one off.

Ranking: LIKELY PLP

ST. THOMAS MOORE

PLP: Frank Smith
FNM: Reece Chipman

More than perhaps any other seat, the PLP gerrymandered this one to their advantage. When it was created in ’02, Perry Christie was so upset that he abandoned it despite the fact that most of his old Centerville seat was in it. He didn’t think he could win and he jumped over to the safe seat of Farm Road (and caused that whole Bradley Roberts/Rev Moss mix-up). Frank Smith was put up as a sacraficial lamb in this seat that was more of the old Shirlea seat than anything else - an FNM stronghold - but the wave crashed over even here. When the PLP got their hands on the knife, the made some serious changes. Bye-bye to nearly everything north of Shirley Street and hello Kemp Road. This seat is now more the old Anne's Town, Salem and Centerville seats than Shirlea. There are some FNM areas left along Macky Street and up in Palmdale, but many more PLP areas. Mr. Smith has a real advantage here - Mr. Chipman is going to have to break into some of the PLP areas to win. It's doable - the FNM won Anne's Town and Salem in 1992 after all, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Ranking: LEAN PLP

ELIZABETH

PLP: Malcolm Adderly

FNM: Elma Campbell

The FNM ran up some good numbers in this seat in '92 and '97 but if you look at '87 it wasn't that close and of course, '02 was a PLP blowout. The lines have changes a little bit, but not in any substantive way. Because Elizabeth Estates is in the seat, the PLP has a good base to start from, something the FNM really lacks. They have shown that they can win it, but they will have to fight for every single vote and the other side has a head start. Better run hard if you want to catch up, Ms. Campbell

Ranking: LEAN PLP

CLIFTON

PLP: Jackson Ritchie
FNM: Kendal Wright

Both of the western PLP incumbents could have laid claim to this seat, but both passed on it; prefering to run for Golden Isles and Killarney. That tells you plainly that they consider this the hardest of the three seats to win. I would tend to agree, though it's all a matter of degree. All of western New Providence is hard for the PLP to win in. Kendal Wright is no slouch at campaigning and he's up against a newcomer. There's little doubt that the FNM's flag will be firmly planted at both ends of the island.

Ranking: SAFE FNM

KILLARNEY

PLP: Neville Wisdom
FNM: Hubert Minnis

This seat is more of old Delaporte than anything else as well as some of Adelaide. Delapore should have been an FNM seat - the PLP won it in '77 only because of the FNM/BDP spilt. Kendal Isaacs then captured if for the FNM and held it until Floyd Watkins took over in '92. I think Watkins was a lousy MP and he should have been switched out in '02 - Mr. Ingraham felt the same way but Mr. Watkins appealed to the candidates committe and went on about how he was a longtime FNM, blah, blah blah. That means nothing unless you are prepared to work to win and hold a seat and he clearly wasn't. He deserved to lose and I wasn't sorry that he did.
But that means that Mr. Wisdom is sitting in enemy territory and he has not exactly distinguished himself with his record. The mix-up with the Junkanoo bleachers probably defined him in a lot of people's minds. He'd have had to have been nearly perfect to convince the people in this area to re-elect him and he has not been. Dr. Minnis should dislodge him from this seat quite handily.

Ranking: LIKELY FNM