Results Open Thread

Well, the polls have just closed. The results will start trickling in within the hour - as they come in I'll post my thoughts in the comment section under this post. The early results - depending on where they are - can tell us some things and I'll let you know. Here we go - this is like watching the Super Bowl for me!

Election Day!

It's election day - listen to all the fun rumours! Valentine Grimes has been arrested for carrying blank ballots (in Long Island no less - where there is no PLP on the ballot???)! Here in Abaco, someone has been arrested in Dundas Town for the same thing! Someone is planning to shoot Hubert Ingraham this afternoon! If you hear it, put it on the Coconut Telagraph in 25 words or less. Who knows how many more fun rumours you will hear before the day it out. Everyone's excited and running around with flags of the two main parties fluttering from their vehicles.

I voted at 9:15AM - my polling division is a small one, so my wife and I went right in. They actually moved it from it's regular location yesterday - we didn't find out until we went to the old one. No matter - it was just down the road. Got rid of most of the ink when I got home and now in my office half day.

I maintain that this election is going to be close - of the seats I called last night, Fox Hill was the one that gave me the most pause. I put it in the FNM column when really if I went by numbers and history only I would have left it PLP. It's just...I have a feeling about that one - Fred Mitchell is a polarizing figure where George Mackey was very much the opposite. My head said one thing and my gut said another and I went with my gut. Not that I do NOT make predictions with my heart - I put what I think will happen, not what I wish would. The PLP had a large crowd last night at Clifford Park - probably a record for them. Not as big as the FNM's mind you, but huge none the less. Those people you saw will be voting PLP just as those in red will be voting FNM. Let's all pray for peace no matter what the outcome.

I'll probably have a blog entry when the results start comming in with me calling seats as info becomes available. Doubt I'll be able to beat any of the stations, but based on some early numbers I can probably give some insight. Depends on how fast I get the numbers in.

Final Predictions!

So this is the post that will get me in trouble after the election because I’m bound to get a few things wrong! This isn’t a betting pool for the Oscars – just me sticking my neck out and calling all 41 seats as I see them now. If I get them all right, I’ll be shocked – there is so much uncertainty in this sort of thing and unlike in other countries, there is no reliable polling data. The Worker’s Party was the only outfit I know of that even HAD a poll and somehow I don’t think Rodney Moncur is an ideal statistician.

Heres what I see right now; a moderate sized FNM wave in Nassau with some minor spillover into the Out Islands. That means that the tossup seats are likely to break for the FNM, they will pick up some of the seats that were leaning PLP and perhaps even one or two of the likely PLP ones, but not the safe ones. So here we go:

For the PLP: Bain Town & Grants Town, Pinewood, Kennedy, St. Thomas Moore, Golden Gates, St. Cecelia, Englerston, Farm Road & Centerville, Yamacraw, West End & Bimini, Cat Island & San Salvador, Exuma and South Eleuthera for a total of 13

For the FNM: Blue Hills, Fort Charlotte, Garden Hills, Elizabeth, Clifton, Killarney, Golden Isles, Carmichael, Mt. Moriah, Bamboo Town, South Beach, Marathon, Seabreeze, Fox Hill, Montagu, St. Annes, North Abaco, South Abaco, High Rock, Pineridge, Marco City, Lucaya, Eight Mile Rock, North Andros, MICAL, North Eleuthera and Long Island for a total of 27

And Mr. Bastian wins South Andros! Feel free to crow if I’m very wrong.

Big Mo

Later this afternoon, I'm going to post my actual predictions. One thing seems clear, though - the momentum is with the FNM. I say that not as someone who is FNM but as someone who is looking at the crowds and hearing the buzz.
The FNM has been fooled by crowds and buzz before - it's possible that this will happen again, but I just don't see how. Nassau is the key and the simple fact is that the FNM is getting bigger and more enthusiastic crowds.
Not that the PLP isn't getting big crowds as well - they are and their supporters are keyed up as well. I don't think that they are going down without a fight and I don't really expect a huge wave like '97 and '02.

SOUTH ANDROS (UPDATE AGAIN!)

Okay, okay, I just have trouble making up my mind on this one. That and the fact that new information keeps reaching me. Two things are making me change yet again. First of all, it seems clear to me that the FNM is not pushing hard for this seat. Their base voters will support the party's candidate, but there isn't a strong push for the floating voters. I think it's clear that they would rather Mr. Bastian retain his seat than the PLP win it, but don't want to do what the PLP did in Long Island and Bamboo Town which is to simply not run anyone. They probably don't want to be tied too closely to Bastian because his reputation is not that great - smart, really.
Also, from my man on the ground, Bastian signs, T-shirts and flags are everywhere. Posters don't vote, but people wearing T-shirts and flying flags do. The PLP should be able to win this seat. I would think that they NEED to win this seat this time. But I don't think they will.

Ranking: LEAN INDEPENDENT

Independents and the BDM

You will note that in most cases, I did not bother to list the minor independent candidates as well as those running for the BDM. It's not just that I don't consider that any of them have a substantive chance to win (and I don't) but that I don't, in fact, even have all of their names. I was out of the country on nomination day and so didn't have the list in the paper of everyone. I was going to list the BDM anyway, but when I went to their website I found that they didn't have up to date information on their candidates. That is, I knew a couple had not been able to nominate because of mix-ups, but they were still listed. Even worse, most were described with the same one-line sentence - "ToeJoe Smith is a dynamic individual". You mean to tell me that whoever put together their web site could not take the time to find out even basic information about their candidates? Their age, job, nothing? I dedicded that if they were not going to bother with that, I was not going to mention their quixotic run for office, either.
What is it with these third parties - at least the CDR has a genuine MP as it's leader and they couldn't save a single deposit. The NDM tried it in '67 and got shut out. My personal favorite was the Vanguard Party that somehow thought Bahamians would vote for a group of people who went around calling each other 'Comrade'. Other than the FNM/BDP split in '77, I can not think of one case in the last 35 years where an third party candidate (other than a true independent) has saved their deposit. Yet still they run - more power to them, I say, but if you want me to take you seriously, take yourself seriously.
And if there are any Vanguard Party members left out there (Comrade Carey?) - Dare to Struggle - Dare to Win!

South Abaco rallies

The FNM and the PLP both held mass rallies in South Abaco over the weekend. So who have the bigger turnout? It seemed to me that both sides had the largest numbers ever seen for their parties. The shape of the FNM’s rally site was deep and narrow – the PLP’s was wide and shallow, making it hard to judge. So I did what any good map guy would do – I determined the square footage of the areas. Easy for me to do – I have survey maps on nearly every part of Marsh Harbour. I was at both rallies – the density per square foot of the people was about the same. So who had the bigger crowd, then? The FNM did – if anyone really wants to see my math, I’ll sent it along.

What was notable was the PLP crowd had very few white people in it. I dislike talking about race in Bahamian politics – it’s so overblown and often racism gets mixed up in it – but this is about demographics. You simply can’t win in South Abaco without a large number of both black and white voters. I’d been to PLP rallies here before, of course – and I’ve never seen such a low ratio of white voters. I was rather surprised to be honest – I expected Gary to have more visible support from among the white community. If this is a sign that Edison Key succeeded in bringing large numbers of white PLP’s to the FNM with him, it’s one more nail in Mr. Sawyer’s coffin.

Rallies

Rallies don’t vote – people do. Of course, rallies are made up of people who DO vote but there is a difference. The FNM has had some problems in the past with this – their candidates in the suburban seats on Nassau (and those seats are the key to winning the election) get up at a rally and see the thousands and thousands and think that there is no way that they can loose. This had led to those candidates running some sloppy and lazy campaigns and losing seats that they should have won.

I say this because based on what you see at the rallies, you would expect an FNM victory is a sure thing. Both sides are drawing huge numbers, but it’s clear that the FNM is getting the larger turnout. I think that the FNM has learned not to count on large rallies to pull them over the finish line – I’m sure Hubert Ingraham knows it.

I think this short election season is going to play to the FNM’s advantage – because the seats were cut so late their candidates can honestly say that they’ve had less than two months of knowing where exactly they would be running. On the other hand, other than one small area out east, all of New Providence was represented by the PLP – those MP’s who did not do a good job of covering their constituencies (and there are always some) will have hurt the PLP’s chances in the areas they represented. The FNM seems to have the momentum and the clock is running out. As long as the people who the FNM nominated for the key seats are out there working hard, the FNM should capture the majority.

SOUTH ANDROS (UPDATED)

I had rated this seat Leaning Independent, but I'm changing it. This is for two reasons - I've gotten some reports from the ground there by someone whose instincts I trust and also because I think that being and independent is a big disadvantage in this election cycle. From 1972 to now, there were only two cycles that independents managed to win seats - '87 and '02 and there were very specific reasons for those cases and none of those conditions exist today. The FNM's base in the seat is about 25-30% of the voters - I predict the winner will get about 40%, but I'm now thinking it's going to be the PLP.

Ranking: LEAN PLP

New Providence Roundup

Well, counting the seats that makes 12 for the FNM (3 safe, 4 likely and 5 leaning) and 11 for the PLP (3 save, 2 likely and 5 leaning) with two toss ups (both with a very slight FNM advantage. You need 21 to win, so if you add in the 9 FNM seats from the Out Islands, you only just get that number. The PLP only needs to switch a few of those seats to win and that's quite doable. Really, the battleground is the suburbs on Nassau. The PLP will win their Over The Hill base and the FNM will capture the ends of the island - all the rest will be fought for.

One thing to note - in the old days, there were more Over The Hill seats thus the PLP had a larger base. Demographics have changed and there are only four true Over The Hill seats left while the FNM's base has expanded. Combined with their stronger position in the Out Islands this gives them a very slight advantage. In further posts, I'll give you specific polling divisions to watch for on election night so you can tell how various seats (and the overall election) are going. Stay tuned!

BLUE HILLS

PLP: Leslie Miller
FNM: Sidney S. Collie

Ever since the seat was created in 1982 there has either been a Foulkes or a Miller on the ballot. I put Dion Foulkes on the 'deserved to lose' list in '02 for screwing up the FNM's campaign so badly. There's no doubt that this is a swing seat. The FNM won it in '82 only to lose it in '87 - the only seat that they lost control of that election. One wonders why Mr. Foulkes didn't try again - but nevertheless, this remains a hard seat for either side. In a close election, it will come down to the wire - if the wind favors one side or the other, that will be the party to take this seat. I think there's just enough going the FNM's way to provide them with a little edge here.

Ranking: TOSS UP (ADVANTAGE FNM)

FORT CHAROLOTTE

PLP: Alfred Sears
FNM: Michael Barnett

I looked at looked at this seat. Other than the fact that they won it in '02, I can't find much good news for the PLP. The boundaries have not changed much - one little sliver that got put into Killarney - but all the numbers seem to put the FNM in the driver's seat. They very nearly won it in '87 and did take it in '92 (when it was called St. Agnes and was actually more PLP). As the seat has been shifted further west, there's no real inner city areas left thus the PLP has no base polling divisions to start with. I think Mr. Sears is in real trouble here - he's going to need a strong PLP wind at his back to keep from getting knocked over and I don't see him getting it.

Ranking: LIKELY FNM

GARDEN HILLS

PLP: Veronica Owens
FNM: Brensil Rolle

This seat keeps getting pushed westward. From where it was in 1992 to where it is now, there is no overlap - if you threw down the old Garden Hills seat on the map the two would not even touch. That means that you have to look at the polling divisions that make up the seat as it exists now. Since '02, the seat has lost a PLP polling division to Englerston, Mount Moriah and St. Celilia. That's a margin that the PLP can ill afford to give up here, especially since they moved toward the FNM west. As I have said elsewhere, you have to work a suburban seat to win it, but if the FNM candidate has done his job, he should be the next MP for this area.

A question - what does 'Garden Hills' refer to? If the seat included an area known as Garden Hills in 92, it cannot include them now. Not that this ever stopped people - and the seat of Blue Hills does not currently include the Blue Hills, either.

Ranking: LEAN FNM

BAIN TOWN AND GRANTS TOWN

PLP: Bernard Nottage
FNM: David Jordine
IND: C Moss

Yes - big fight in Bain Town. Confession time - Bernard Nottage is my favorite PLP. I felt that if they had made him leader in the late '90's we'd have all been better off. I think he's smart, fair, hard working and...best of all...NOT A LAWYER! I had hoped that his quixotic attempt to found a third party might succeed against all the odds, but like so many who have tried before him, he fell short in that goal. I understand why he came back to the PLP though I was hoping he'd join the FNM. If the PLP doesn't win the election, expect a bloody fight to replace Mr. Christie as leader and my money will be on Dr. Nottage. But for him to be in the running, he has to win. Will he?

Okay, the FNM won Bain Town in 1992 even without a big wave - good job by Gregory Williams who worked hard for that victory and held the seat in 1997. But Over The Hill continues to shrink and it got merged with Grants Town - one seat the FNM never managed to win. Few doubted the PLP would win big in '02 and they did. But the conflict came from the fact that two PLP seats were combined into one and two people had been promised nominations. Rev. Moss accepted the compromise that was offered him, but the simple fact is that he was lied to. I doubt that at the time they said it, Mr. Christe and Mr. Robers deliberatly lied - I suspect at that time they meant what they said. But Rev. Moss took them at their word and when they found it convinient to change their minds, they did so. Here, I think, is Rev. Moss' mistake. Clearly, he sat back and waited for the nomination to be handed to him. He should have been working the seat - establishing strong ties with the PLP generals so that if anyone tried to take the seat from him, there would have been a big local protest. The fact that the branch asked for Dr. Nottage shows that Moss' support among the strong and dedicated PLP's isn't very high. Clearly, Mr. Christie felt he could afford for Rev. Moss to run independent and still hold the seat or else he would have put Dr. Nottage elsewhere. Really, I think he's a better fit in the suburbs anyway.

The big question is if Rev. Moss passes the test of being credible enough to win - if not enough people think that he is not, he'll be lucky to get more than 200 votes. Those votes will all come from the PLP and so the FNM should hope that he does well. In fact, they should get some of their money people to quietly fund him, but they should have done that in the last election with the CDR and they didn't. I don't see Moss getting enough traction and without that, he can't steal enough votes for the FNM to win.

Ranking: LIKELY PLP

PINEWOOD

PLP: Allyson Maynard-Gibson
FNM: Kwasi Thompson

Another woman who knows her stuff - the daughter of Sir Lynden's other deputy leader. The difference is that she's in a suburban seat not an Over The Hill one. It'll come down to who has worked the hardest and that does favor Mrs. Maynard-Gibson somewhat since she's the incumbent. This area has grown a lot - the areas to the east, west and south lead toward the FNM but I'd have to say this one is going to go the other way.

Ranking: LEAN PLP

KENNEDY

PLP: Kenyatta Gibson
FNM: Michael Turnquest

I thought the FNM had this one in the bag in '02 - they had come so close in '97 and they were facing a PLP split in the seat. In fact, the boudary cuts for this particular constituency had favored the PLP and Dr. Nottage (running for his new CDR party) was unable to mount a serious challenge. It hasn't changed a great deal - they did cut out one little PLP area to throw into Seabreeze and moved the western boundary to East Street, but this still looks like a PLP seat to me. They were able to hold it even during the FNM's wave in '97 and since then it's been made more PLP. I'd be shocked to see the FNM pull this one off.

Ranking: LIKELY PLP

ST. THOMAS MOORE

PLP: Frank Smith
FNM: Reece Chipman

More than perhaps any other seat, the PLP gerrymandered this one to their advantage. When it was created in ’02, Perry Christie was so upset that he abandoned it despite the fact that most of his old Centerville seat was in it. He didn’t think he could win and he jumped over to the safe seat of Farm Road (and caused that whole Bradley Roberts/Rev Moss mix-up). Frank Smith was put up as a sacraficial lamb in this seat that was more of the old Shirlea seat than anything else - an FNM stronghold - but the wave crashed over even here. When the PLP got their hands on the knife, the made some serious changes. Bye-bye to nearly everything north of Shirley Street and hello Kemp Road. This seat is now more the old Anne's Town, Salem and Centerville seats than Shirlea. There are some FNM areas left along Macky Street and up in Palmdale, but many more PLP areas. Mr. Smith has a real advantage here - Mr. Chipman is going to have to break into some of the PLP areas to win. It's doable - the FNM won Anne's Town and Salem in 1992 after all, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Ranking: LEAN PLP

ELIZABETH

PLP: Malcolm Adderly

FNM: Elma Campbell

The FNM ran up some good numbers in this seat in '92 and '97 but if you look at '87 it wasn't that close and of course, '02 was a PLP blowout. The lines have changes a little bit, but not in any substantive way. Because Elizabeth Estates is in the seat, the PLP has a good base to start from, something the FNM really lacks. They have shown that they can win it, but they will have to fight for every single vote and the other side has a head start. Better run hard if you want to catch up, Ms. Campbell

Ranking: LEAN PLP

CLIFTON

PLP: Jackson Ritchie
FNM: Kendal Wright

Both of the western PLP incumbents could have laid claim to this seat, but both passed on it; prefering to run for Golden Isles and Killarney. That tells you plainly that they consider this the hardest of the three seats to win. I would tend to agree, though it's all a matter of degree. All of western New Providence is hard for the PLP to win in. Kendal Wright is no slouch at campaigning and he's up against a newcomer. There's little doubt that the FNM's flag will be firmly planted at both ends of the island.

Ranking: SAFE FNM

KILLARNEY

PLP: Neville Wisdom
FNM: Hubert Minnis

This seat is more of old Delaporte than anything else as well as some of Adelaide. Delapore should have been an FNM seat - the PLP won it in '77 only because of the FNM/BDP spilt. Kendal Isaacs then captured if for the FNM and held it until Floyd Watkins took over in '92. I think Watkins was a lousy MP and he should have been switched out in '02 - Mr. Ingraham felt the same way but Mr. Watkins appealed to the candidates committe and went on about how he was a longtime FNM, blah, blah blah. That means nothing unless you are prepared to work to win and hold a seat and he clearly wasn't. He deserved to lose and I wasn't sorry that he did.
But that means that Mr. Wisdom is sitting in enemy territory and he has not exactly distinguished himself with his record. The mix-up with the Junkanoo bleachers probably defined him in a lot of people's minds. He'd have had to have been nearly perfect to convince the people in this area to re-elect him and he has not been. Dr. Minnis should dislodge him from this seat quite handily.

Ranking: LIKELY FNM

GOLDEN ISLES

PLP: Michael Halkitis
FNM:Charles Maynard

A constituency named after a dairy farm! That's a first for the Bahamas and probably for the whole Comonwealth. Who thinks up some of these names, anyway? Incumbent Mr. Halkitis chose this seat over the new Clifton seat even though more of his original constituency of Adilade was in Clifton. I suppose he thought he stood more of a chance here, but he's still got an uphill fight to hold his seat. This is a mostly middle class seat and the numbers tend to favor the FNM. Charles Maynard is running a strong campaign as well - and that's what the FNM needs to win in the suburbs.

Ranking: LIKELY FNM

CHARMICHAEL

PLP: John Carey
FNM: Desmond Bannister

In 2002, I was more impressed with the campaign of Mr. Carey than I was of Mr. Bannister. All the same it was close - Mr. Carey actually got just less then 50% of the votes with the independents making the difference. That was with the PLP wave - Mr. Carey cannot count on that carrying him this time. Has he done a good job as an MP? Only his constituents can answer that - the reports I get are mixed, but you can't allways tell from the noise in the marketplace as everyone knows.

This seat in it's current form was created in 1987 when the PLP won by a small margin. The FNM took it in 92 and 97 so it's another suburban swing seat. But it's one that I think has a slight FNM advantage - especially given that the boundary cuts have moved it a bit further west. If FNM chairman Mr. Bannister has done his work in the seat rather than just speaking at rallies, he should capture this seat.

Ranking: LEAN FNM

GOLDEN GATES

PLP: Shane Gibson
FNM: Donald Saunders

Shane Gibson won with a big margin in 2002 - more than two to one. Outside of the Over The Hill seats, he had the biggest margin of victory in New Providence. So he should be safe, right? Wrong. Can you say Anna Nicolle Smith? I don't think that the unfortunate situation with the late Ms. Smith will damage the PLP overall very much, but Gibson himself has been badly hurt.
Let me say right off I don't think Mr. Gibson did anything wrong other than to be a little star struck and the fact his family clearly became close friends with Ms. Smith's family tends to prove that this was all on the level. Yes, he fast-tracked her papers and didn't follow up on them - not good, but hardly a huge offence. But in politics perception is everything and that picture of him being hugged by Anna Nicolle is likely to cost him a lot of respect. He had to quit the cabinet - and it seems unlikely he'd get re-admitted if the PLP wins the election. That makes him damaged goods and people don't like to vote for a damaged MP because he's less effective.

So does that mean the FNM has the advantage? Not really. This isn't a true suburban swing seat - there is some built-in tilt to the PLP. Gibson has an advantage in numbers, but it's a small one. He'd better work hard if he doesn't want Anna Nicolle to reach out from the grave and drag him down.

Ranking: LEAN PLP

MT. MORIAH

PLP: Keod Smith
FNM: Tommy Turnquest

The PLP nominated Mr. Smith in '02 thinking he had no chance to win, but that he'd manage to annoy then FNM leader Turnquest with his bombastic and loudmouthed style. I think most people were surprised when he actually won - the question then became what to do with him? It's clear that he does not play well with others - apart from the well publisized fight in the Cabinet room, he was often at cross puroses with other party members in his capacity as head of the BEST commision. So why did the PLP re-nominate him? The same reason as before - they don't think he'll win and in this case it seems like there is less fuss involved in just letting him run. Had they shut him out, he'd have screamed bloody murder and probably run independent.
Tommy T only lost by a small margin last time - 118 votes. That's not much to make up. One hopes the lessons of '02 have not been lost on him - if he wants to have any future in politics (and he clearly does) he's got to win and win convincingly. He's had two strikes - he should have won this seat in 1987 when it was called Oakes Field and he should have done a better job in '02. I'm betting that this time he's going to hit the ball for at least a solid double.

Ranking: LIKELY FNM

ST. CECEILIA

PLP: Cynthia Mother Pratt
FNM: Felton Cox

A new seat in '97, the PLP has won it both times. It's really just your average Over The Hill seat - where the FNM has little or no shot and even less so with a reasonably popular MP who takes care of the small things. Some of the first returns broadcast in the '02 election were from this seat and the size of the margins told me that something major was happening. All the same, Mother Pratt should win all the polling divisions here.

I have to be childish now and say that if I were running the PLP's campaign for this seat, I would have fun with Mr. Cox's name. I mean, you drop the second syllable of his first name and, well....see for yourself. However, Mother Pratt is classy and I can't imagine her doing anything like that. Not that she needs to in this constituency.

Ranking: SAFE PLP

BAMBOO TOWN

IND: Tennyson Wells
FNM: Branville McCartney

An interesting seat this one is. The PLP probably could have won it if they had opposed Mr. Wells in '02, but no one predicted a wave of such a big size and they prudently chose to leave him alone. In this they were smarter than the FNM traditionally has been because they've been really stupid in splitting votes before. The whole 1977 election and North Long Island in '82 if you want some examples. Clearly, the PLP doesn't think they can win it on their own this time either since they've left Mr. Wells alone again. So does this give Mr. Wells the advantage? Let's look at the history.

Bamboo Town has tended to be a swing seat. The PLP held it in '77 and '82, but then Mr. Wells won it for the FNM in '87 despite the fact that many other seats in New Providence that the FNM had hoped for did not deliver. In some part this was due to Mr. Wells hard work from '82 to '87 in the seat. Has he kept up on this? I'm not convinced. His numbers were impressive in '02 - 63% to the FNM candidate's pitiful 29%. But Bamboo Town also had the lowest turnout number in whole of the Bahamas. Wells got nearly all PLP votes (other than those who stayed home) as well as some FNM's who felt he'd been screwed over in the leadership race the year before. Will he hold those votes? No way.

I still think he'll get the PLP votes - although I don't expect them to be very enthusiastic about him - but I expect him to get very few of the 'true' FNM votes. Pierre Dupuch - who was in the same situation as well - probably realized that he didn't have a chance to win this time and was smart to retire with a record of 5-0. Wells is risking going out on a low note. Sometimes people run as independents because they are between parties - that was the case with Ingraham and Christie in '87. Christie went back to the PLP before the next election and Ingraham went to the FNM. What is Tennyson Wells future? Does he intened to remain independent forever? How effective is an independent in our system? Not very and Mr. Wells is not all that charismatic. I think he'd have done better to join the PLP or even form his own party. As long as Mr. McCartney has done the work, I see him unseating Mr. Wells

Rating: LEAN FNM

SOUTH BEACH

PLP: Wallace Rolle
FNM: Phenton Neymour

Like SeaBreeze, South Beach is a bellweather seat. In the past, the FNM has squandered some opertunities, here. In '82 they nominated a rather firey priest named Addison Turnquest who got labeled with the unfortunate nickname of 'The Ayatollah' and in '87 a lackluster and disorganized effort by Henry Bostwick ended his quest to make it back into the house. But in '92, the FNM took it and held it for ten years. The PLP won by a small margin in '02, but it's now one of the few open seats - the incumbent Ms. Marchelle having chosen to retire.

The FNM has to have this seat to win - it's hard to picture them getting to 22 without it. The PLP could afford to lose it and still have a small margin of seats. Phenton Neymour was a founding member of the CDR party in the last election and found out what many before him have discovered - Bahamians don't want a third party for some reason. But he's a hard worker and dedicated - something that's needed in this seat. I think he's got the edge here.

Ranking: LEAN FNM

ENGLERSTON

PLP: Glenys Hanna-Martin
FNM: Raymond Rolle

Englerston is the PLP equivilent of Montagu for the FNM - it's the one seat that the other side has never won. They came close during the wave election of '97, but that was the best there were ever going to do. The daughter of the Governor General is holding the seat and I can't see her being the type to let someone sneak up on her and take it away.
One oddity - due to the falling population of the area, for the first time a small portion of the seat is on the north side of Wulff Road. That wont matter much - I expect Mrs. Hanna-Martin to win every polling division.

Ranking: SAFE PLP

FARM ROAD AND CENTERVILLE

PLP: Perry Christie
FNM: Ella Lewis

Perry Christie grabbed this safe seat for himself in the wake of the FNM's pre-2002 election cuts. There's been some jiggling - the FNM might do okay in polling divisions 12-15 (and perhaps #1) but the rest of it's a solid Over The Hill seat. Mr. Christie will go in easily.

Ranking: SAFE PLP

MARATHON

PLP: Ron Pinder

FNM: Earl Deveaux

In 1997, Marathon provided the FNM with their largest margin of victory in the whole country. Yet somehow they lost the seat in 02. What happened? Well, the MP Mr. Allen was upset that he didn’t win the leadership race and sort of dropped out for a while. Eventually, he popped his head up again, but he doesn’t seem to have campaigned much in his seat whereas the PLP had a young and motivated candidate in Mr. Pinder and he stole the seat right out from under Mr. Allen’s nose. It’s very interesting to speculate what might have happened if Mr. Allen had worked his seat a bit harder – a dozen votes could have changed history because had he won, he would have surely been named the Opposition Leader in the house and could probably have used that position to become leader of the FNM and perhaps he’d be the one running for PM now. Moral of the story; never give up.

So what happens this time? Mr. Pinder seems to have been a decent MP, but is that enough to overcome the FNM makeup of this seat? I have a hard time accepting that; the PLP does have a few polling divisions to claim as their own here (#11 in particular) but Marathon went FNM in ’87 when other suburban seats went PLP. I think it will be close, but the FNM has the upper hand

Ranking: LEAN FNM

SEABREEZE

PLP: Hope Strachan

FNM: Carl Bethel

Call it Seabreeze if you want, but this is really the same Holy Cross seat that was created in 1982. The FNM came within 10 votes of winning it then and came close again in ’87 before winning it twice in the nineties and then losing it in ’02. That makes this seat a true bellweather; no one has won the government without winning this seat and my prediction is whoever takes this seat takes the government.

So who will win? The FNM has one advantage here; the PLP MP, Mr. Sidney Collie, is not running again. He was the only PLP MP not to secure a nomination – I’ve no need to list all his problems – so they have had to bring in Ms. Strachan. Whereas the FNM has their two-term MP Mr. Bethel up to regain the seat. That’s a small advantage and it may be critical in this very important seat.

Ranking: TOSS UP (ADVANTAGE FNM)

YAMACRAW

PLP: Melanie Griffin
FNM: Pauline Nairn

Not much left of the original Yamacraw. When it was created in 1982, it was considered by all to be an FNM seat and they put up Janet Bostiwick, understanding the value of having the first woman in the house. The PLP responded by nominating a woman of their own in the new seat of Blue Hills, but Mrs. Bridgewater lost and Mrs. Bostiwick won, and so she is the one history will remember as the First Lady of Parliament. The PLP did not do much to challenge her in ’87, but in ’92 they cut the seat to include some strong PLP areas in the new Elizabeth Estates area and Michelle Pindling ran for the PLP. This probably wasn’t a great idea; while many other children of MP’s past and present have run and won, the daughter of the existing PM was a different story. Some felt that Sir Lynden was attempting to found a dynasty, though I should point out that if he really wanted, he could have found a safe seat for his daughter to run in. Either way, despite spending a lot of money, she lost and Mrs. Bostwick held her seat again in ’97. In ’02, she got hit with the PLP wave; she’d not been all that well and thus had not campaigned very hard for her seat. It’s a pity, really, that she didn’t retire rather than get voted out, but that’s the way things go in politics.

But Yamacraw today is not what it once was. Gone is Port New Providence, and area that would have delivered a large margin to the FNM. It’s the most oddly shaped seat in the whole country and the PLP did that for a reason. I think they’ve given themselves a very slight advantage there and the FNM’s Mrs. Nairn is going to have to work her butt off to return this one to the red column.

Ranking: LEAN PLP

FOX HILL

PLP: Fred Mitchell

FNM: Jacinta Higgs

Because Mr. Mitchell is a somewhat controversial figure who attracts a lot of press, there seems to be a great deal of interest in this seat. Listening to the FNM they count this one as a pickup, but I’m not convinced. In ’82 and ’87 the FNM came fairly close to winning it, but in ’92 even with a moderate breeze behind them, the PLP still hung on. Some would say that had to do with longtime MP George Mackey, but I don’t know about that. There are a couple of polling divisions in Fox Hill that can be counted on to give the PLP a decent margin and the FNM candidate has to pick up enough votes in the other areas to overcome those. One of the best places to do that has been cut off and put into St. Anne’s, making the job even harder.

It’s hard to rate how popular Mr. Mitchell is. Some of his partisans run a website, www.bahamasuncensored.com and they always seem to be showing him doing something or another in the seat. Some Bahamians seemed to object to the amount of traveling Mr. Mitchell did to do his job; are his constituents among them? The other thing to factor in is the fact that they felt the need to cut out and FNM area and that Mr. Mitchell is making a great deal of noise about his opponent. Sometimes that is a sign of a candidate running scared, but I think it’s just the way he is.

I tend to think that in the face of a light FNM breeze, Mr. Mitchell remain standing. If the winds pick up too much, he’ll get knocked over but he’s got the advantage.

Ranking: LEAN PLP

MONTAGU

FNM: Loretta Butler Turner

PLP: Yvette Turnquest

Another write off for the PLP – They have never won the seat of Montagu in any configuration. Again, the gerrymanderers have been hard at work here; they have taken some of the most solid FNM areas out of the old Shirlea (and recently St. Thomas Moore) seat and thrown them in. The end result is that this seat was been pushed way west along the waterfront all the way down to Armstrong street and takes in Paradise Island. The PLP candidate has nothing to work with here and no hope of winning.

Ranking: SAFE FNM

ST ANNES

FNM: Brent Symonette

PLP: Ricardo Treco

This new seat was created by taking the eastern portions of Montagu and Yamacraw as well as the easternmost polling division of Fox Hill. This includes Winton Hights, Port New Providence. Needless to say, these areas are overwhelmingly FNM. There’s simply no way a PLP candidate could win here and everybody knows it. I’m sure Mr. Treco simply hopes to make it respectable, but he’ll be lucky to break 33%. If there’s a more FNM seat in the whole country, I don’t know what it is. Throw in the fact that Mr. Symonette is the incumbent and he’s been sponsoring works in the area since he won in ’02 and you have another advantage. Mr. Symonette was the only FNM in all of Nassau who won last time – there is no way he’ll lose.

Ranking: SAFE FNM

Nassau Seats

No, I have not started to rank the Nassau seats yet. There are a couple of reasons for that - mostly because the final list of candidates was just approved this week but also because I have yet to get my hands on a good map of the cuts. I have copys of the NP seat map going back to 1982 and in most cases, have the breakdown of the votes by polling division. I'd really like to go through every seat on a case-by-case basis and see how things look - the 1997 and 2002 results are not all that helpful because those were both 'wave' elections, but when you look at the older data some stuff does become more clear. I could put up rankings for a few of the 'safe' seats, but I'd really rather do them when all my info is in front of me.
My MP is supposed to be giving me one, but if anyone has one can you scan it and email it to me? I'd be very thankful if you did.

Out Island Roundup

So far that makes the score 9 for the FNM (3 Safe, 4 Likely and 2 Lean) 1 Independend (Lean) , 4 PLP (1 Likely and 3 Lean) and two toss-ups (one with a PLP advantage). If that sounds unrealistic, remember that even in the 2002 PLP wave, the FNM still won 7 of 16 seats if you count Mr. Cartwright in Long Island. That means that Nassau will, as usual, be the key to the election. The FNM will go into Nassau with a slight advantage in seats, but they must split New Providence if they want to win. The PLP must do a little bit better than split, they must win an outright majority.

One note, I’m sure Mr. Bastian in South Andros has this fantasy where the FNM and the PLP each get 20 seats and he wins his seat. Which party would he choose to side with in that case? Perry Christie successfully kept him from getting the PLP nomination that he so badly wanted in 2002, but that does not mean that he would not align with them if they made him a good enough deal. No doubt both Christie and Ingraham are crossing their fingers that they don’t face that situation the morning after the election.

One other point; yes, I say ‘Out Islands’ instead of ‘Family Islands’ because I’ve always considered that a most retarded term. I don’t know who came up with it, but it’s boneheaded.

WEST END AND BIMINI

PLP: Obie Wilchcombe

FNM: David Wallace

While the PLP won this seat in 1972, the FNM was poised to win it back in ’77 when the BDP stupidly opposed them. This vote splitting allowed the PLP’s Moses Hall to win with less than 50% of the vote. In ’82 with the opposition reunited, many felt that the FNM’s Arlington Butler would capture the seat, but he fell short again. The FNM failed to win the seat in ’87 and ’92 despite optimistic predictions that all of Grand Bahama would finally be FNM. In the wave of ’97, the FNM’s David Wallace finally brought home the seat, which was expanded to include Bimini for the first time.

Mr. Wallace lost to current MP Mr. Wilchcombe in 2002 by 405 votes and is now seeking a rematch. Again, we hear optimistic talk from FNMs about this seat, but I’m not buying it yet. It’s true that the project on the western end of Grand Bahama has yet to produce much for the area, but the fact remains that West End is a PLP town. Also, Mr. Wilchcombe has to be considered a good MP and his actions during the recent hurricanes were considered by most to be heroic and he risked himself to help his constituents.

On the plus side for the FNM, Bimini seems to switch from one party to the other every election (the FNM won the old Bimini seat in ’87 only to lose it in ’92) and the fact that the PLP took a polling division from what was already the smallest Grand Bahama seat in terms of numbers shows they must have some concern. Without that fact, I’d have put this in the likely category, but clearly his own party thinks there is some risk to Mr. Wilchcombe.

Ranking: LEAN PLP

EIGHT MILE ROCK

FNM: Verna Grant

PLP: Caleb Outten

This seat was created in 1987 and has been won by the FNM in every election. The closest the PLP came to victory in ’02 when the FNM’s Lindy Russell held off the PLP’s Caleb Outten by less than 50 votes. Mr. Outten is back for another try as the seat while Mr. Russell has chosen to retire, leaving the FNM banner for insurance executive Mrs. Grant. This is fairly close to a write-off, though. The PLP has not earned any support from their handling of hurricane relief in this area and just added in an FNM polling division from West End. Mr. Outten will need to pull a rabbit out of his hat to pull this one off.

Ranking: LIKELY FNM

MARCO CITY

PLP: Pleasant Bridgewater

FNM: Zhivargo Laing

Marco City was created in 1982 and won by the FNM’s C.A. Smith. The late Cecil Wallace-Whitfield took over the seat in 1987 when he and Mr. Smith switched seats and he won by over 600 votes. Unfortunately, he soon was discovered to have cancer and despite a valiant fight, he finally succumbed to the disease in 1991. The PLP ran Albert Gray in the bye-election against the FNM’s David Thompson and pulled out all the stops, hoping to crush the momentum that the FNM was starting to build with the addition of Hubert Ingraham as the new leader replacing Sir Cecil, but they fell short. They tried to spin it into a victory since they had cut the FNM’s margin from 600 down to fewer than 200, but it was not perceived that way and Mr. Thompson went on to win large margins in ’92 and ’92.

But by ’02, he was damaged goods and under a cloud of alleged corruption. Mr. Ingraham wanted him replaced as a candidate but he refused to give up the seat and the candidates committee agreed to re-nominate him. He lost by over 250 votes in what should have been one of the safest FNM seats in the country to Mrs. Bridgewater who had been working very hard.

Mrs. Bridgewater has continued to work the seat but as election time looms, she faces the twin obstacles of the seats natural FNM slant combined with the bad economy of Freeport. Either would be hard to overcome, but with both in place, she’s starting this race from behind.

She faces Mr. Laing, the former FNM MP for Ft. Charlote. He's known as a tough campaigner with energy to match hers. Expect a lot of work to be done in this seat by both sides.

Rating: LEAN FNM

LUCAYA

FNM: Neko Grant

PLP: Constance McDonald

The Lucaya seat was created in 1992 and Mr. Grant was the surprise winner of a primary the FNM held in the seat for the nomination. There was never any question he would win it; the PLP government created it as a ‘safe’ FNM seat in hopes of flipping one of the others. In the end, all it got them was another FNM MP. In 2002, PLP candidate Stephen Plakaris came within 200 votes of Mr. Grant, but that is as good as the PLP can be reasonable expected to do. Mrs. McDonald would need a tsunami to carry her to victory here.

Ranking: SAFE FNM

PINERIDGE

PLP: Anne Percentie

FNM: Kwasi Thompson

While Grand Bahama has always been considered ‘FNM Country’, Mrs. Percentie racked up an impressive 60% of the vote in 2002. In fact, outside of West End, Pineridge has been one of the more competitive seats in recent years. Garnet Levarity won it for the FNM in 1977 and handed it to Cecil Wallace-Whitfield in 1982. Whitfield switched with Marco City MP CA Smith in 1987 due to the way the boundaries had been changed, but Smith’s margin of victory was less than 200 votes. While he did well in ’92 and ’97, the PLP wave caught him unprepared and left him high and dry. Pineridge is quite winnable for the FNM but young Mr. Thompson will have to do a lot of hard work. This seat is not what you would call a walk. Mrs. Percentie has the disadvantage of a severe economic downturn in Freeport to contend with and that may be the thing that prevents her from holding the seat.

Rating: LEANING FNM

HIGH ROCK

FNM: Kenneth Russell

PLP: Dr. Doswell Coakley

In the FNM’s bad year of 2002, only Hubert Ingraham and Brent Symonette (the current Leader and Deputy Leader) won a higher percentage of votes than Kenneth Russell. High Rock went PLP in 1968 when it was won by Maurice Moore, but he left the PLP with the ‘Dissident Eight’ and lost the seat in 1972 as an FNM. Running again for the FNM in 1977 and being unopposed by the BDP, Moore regained the seat and held it until he retired in 1997 when Mr. Russell took it over. I don’t think even the most optimistic PLP sees a path for Mr. Coakley to win baring some catastrophic meltdown by Mr. Russell.

Ranking: SAFE FNM

EXUMA

PLP: Anthony Moss

FNM: Joshua Sears

Exuma went PLP in the 1970’s and they held it until 1997. Originally it consisted of two seats, Rolleville in the north and George Town in the south. George Town was considered winnable for the FNM while Rolleville was usually written off. In the 1977 election, in the three way FNM-BDP-PLP race, Rolleville FNM candidate Wydian Pyfrom became a trivia question (and punch line) by receiving NO votes – the only major party candidate in Bahamian history to earn that dubious honor.

In 1992, Exuma was reduced to one seat and while the FNM’s Lyn Holowesko ran a strong race, she was not able to overcome the PLP. In 1997 the FNM wave carried in Elliot Lockhart but he lost by a very small margin to the PLP’s Anthony Moss in ’02.

Since then, Exuma has opened a large resort, part of Prime Minister Christie’s ‘Anchor project’ strategy for developing the Out Islands. This has brought an influx of people as well as some serious social problems. While this seems to have put off some Exuma natives, those new residents are obviously employed and perhaps more likely to support the status quo. Moss did not win by much in ’02 despite the PLP wave, but the game in Exuma has changed since then. Former diplomat Mr. Sears will need all his powers of persuasion if he wants to make it to parliament

Rating: LEAN PLP

NORTH ANDROS AND THE BERRY ISLANDS

PLP: Vincent Peet

FNM: Shandrice Rolle

The PLP won the Nichols Town seat in 1972, but it was never considered safe like the rest of Andros. Former MP Peter Christie made a strong run to recapture the seat for the BDP in 1977 and Henry Bostwick ran hard in ’82 as did Dr. Nigel Lewis in ’87 and ’92. In 1997, the FNM finally won it in their sweep, with Earl Deveaux becoming the MP. The PLP recaptured it in 2002 with former Holy Cross MP Vincent Peet winning 55% of the vote.

Now Peet faces a popular young businesswoman who lives in the constituency and he is being pressed hard. This seat had the only boundary change outside of New Providence and Grand Bahamas, as the southernmost town was moved from North Andros to South Andros. This town was considered marginally FNM and shows evidence of the PLP trying to shore up Mr. Peet.

One interesting thing; according to The Punch, Mr. Peet threw up in his car upon losing the election in Holy Cross both in ‘92 and ‘97. If he looses again, will this be the third time he vomits from stress? All the same, I give him a very slight lead.

Rating: TOSS UP (ADVANTAGE PLP)

SOUTH ANDROS

IND: Whitney Basitan

PLP: Picewell Forbes

FNM: Marjorie Johnson

Once considered the bedrock of the PLP, they have been unable to win the seat since Sir Lynden Pindling stepped down in 1997. It was actually held by the UBP prior to the 1967 election when Sir Lynden took a gamble and left his safe seat in Nassau to see if he could pick it up. His gamble paid off; without his effort, the UPB likely would have retained it and held the government for five more years. There is no doubt that he was loved by many in the Kemp’s Bay Constituency; more often than not he defeated the FNM candidate so badly that they would not make the 17% threshold needed to keep their deposit.

The current South Andros seat also includes the former seat of Mangrove Cay, another PLP stronghold. The FNM did not make a serious run for this seat until 1992 and while they did not defeat the incumbent Dr. Norman Gay, they did much better than they ever had before.

In 1997, Mangrove Cay and Kemps Bay were joined into one and Sir Lynden ran against the FNM’s Ronald Bosfeild. Mr. Bosfeild ran a respectable race – the first one against Sir Lynden since 1967, but it was not enough and Mr. Pindling was the only PLP to win his seat in the Out Islands. After the election, with the PLP’s abysmal performance, Mr. Pindling stepped down from parliament, triggering a bye-election. The FNM put up Mr. Bosfeild again and this time he was able to win the seat, the first time a seat had changed hands in a bye-election in over 40 years.

In 2002 there was a three way race between Mr. Bosfeild for the FNM, Vincent Symonette for the PLP and independent Whitney Bastian. Bastian was a former PLP and some in the FNM hoped that he would draw off enough votes from Mr. Symonette to overcome the seat’s PLP bent to allow Mr. Bosfeild to retain it. Mr. Symonette hurt himself badly when he add-libbed a joke during a rally that many felt was crude. After the silver tongue of Sir Lynden this was quite a contrast. Mr. Bastian also poured a great deal of his own money into the race. In something of a surprise, Mr. Bastian came in first, pulling in 38% of the vote.

2007 finds Mr. Bastian running again as an independent to retain his seat. He faces Mr. Forbes, who seems to be a smoother candidate than Mr. Symonette and Mrs. Johnson, who has roots in the area. A lot could happen here; Mr. Bastian has considerable resources and had indicated he will bring these to bear in the campaign. The PLP and the FNM will get their die-hard voters (more of these are PLP than FNM in that seat) and Mr. Bastian will probably pull most of his votes from the PLP, but in the end result, we are likely to see a repeat of the 2002 results. If the FNM were to pull out, Mr. Bastian would have a clear advantage, but as it is his advantage is small.

Rating: LEANING INDEPENDENT.

LONG ISLAND

FNM: Larry Cartwright

IND: James Miller

Long Island was two seats until 1992 and has always been strongly FNM. The PLP won the seat in the North (Deadman’s Cay) in 1977 and held it until for three elections, but in ’92 it was overwhelmed by the FNM south. South Long Island (Clarence Town), by the way, is the only place in the Out Islands never to be represented by the PLP. Jimmy Knowles held Clarence Town for the FNM from 1977 onwards until 2002. The PLP saw no point contesting the seat and left it to an independent; Mr. Larry Cartwright who was also FNM and felt that he should have gotten the nomination instead of Mr. Knowles. He got the PLP votes and enough FNM votes to capture the seat from Mr. Knowles but has lately rejoined the FNM. In something of a repeat from 2002, he faces Mr. Miller, the FNM’s former MP for Cat Island and former candidate for the Deadman’s Cay seat.

The PLP never had a chance here and they knew it, preferring not to waste time and money. Mr. Miller has some support, to be sure, and will probably get whatever PLP votes there are, but this is unlikely to be enough to overcome Mr. Cartwright.

Rating: LIKELY FNM

MICAL

PLP: Alfred Gray
FNM: Dion Foulks

First of all, can I say how much I hate the name of this constituency? Would it have been too much to call it Inagua, Mayaguana and the Windwards? And what makes Long Cay, an island with a bare handful of voters worthy of contributing a letter to the goofy acronym of a name, anyway?

Until ’97, this was two seats. The PLP first won Inagua in 1972 while the FNM held Crooked and Acklins. When ’77 rolled around, the PLP’s Wilbert Moss managed to win in Crooked and Acklins as well. However, in 1982 while Moss held his seat, the FNM’s Vernon Symonette picked up Inagua and held it until he retired in 02’. Mr. Moss won his seat two more times, but in 1990 was forced to resign when he was convicted of attempting to bribe a judge. In the bye-election, the FNM offered up their ’87 candidate (and former MP) Basil Kelly against the PLP’s Franklyn Walkine. No one seriously consider the governing party would lose in a bye-election and Mr. Walkine won by a large margin. Shortly after this, the FNM’s proposed candidate for the ’92 election literally vanished into the Bermuda Triangle along with several of his generals. It was assumed that their plane went down, but no trace was ever found. After this tragedy, the FNM did not put up a candidate for the seat, lining up behind Loftus Roker, a former PLP MP from Nichols Town who had quit the party and was running independent. Mr. Roker came close, but Walkine managed to hold onto his seat.

In 1997, the two seats became one and Mr. Symonette carried it for the FNM with a respectable margin but in 2002 the PLP’s Alfred Gray won it by a handful of votes over the FNM’s Johnley Ferguson.

This election sees Mr. Gray taking on Mr. Foulks, a former two-term FNM MP for Blue Hills in the suburbs of Nassau and the son of Arthur Foulks, one of the founding members of the FNM. Mr. Gray probably has a bit of an advantage in Crooked, Acklins and Mayaguana, but the big question is Inagua. Mathew Town has tended to be marginally FNM and there is a serious problem labor problem right now with Morton Salt. Morton is the lifeblood of Inagua as there is no tourist industry to speak of and so any problem there is likely to be very unsettling to the people. Will the PLP, as the incumbent party, get blamed for not solving the problem? Or will they be able to pull out an agreement in time for the election? Foulks is known to be a good campaigner but Gray is no slouch, either. Every vote is going to count in this one.

Rating: TOSS UP

CAT ISLAND, RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR

PLP: Phillip ‘Brave’ Davis

FNM: Gladys Sands

Until 1968, this was two seats. Low population growth merged them into one and we can all be grateful that the persons who name constituencies did not call them the Columbus Isles like the people who organize the Bahama Games did. They were UBP until 68 and then Henry Bowen won the seat for the PLP. Oscar Johnson carried the PLP banner in ’72 only to be unseated by the BDP’s Erwin Knowles 5 years later. But Knowles switched parties, and ran successfully for the PLP in ’82 and ’87 and was appointed Minister of Agriculture before he was forced to resign in scandal during the run-up to the ’92 election. The FNM chose not to contest the bye-election and the PLP’s Mr. Davis was opposed by independent George Wilson. While they were officially boycotting it, as an experiment, the FNM focused on the town of Benetts Harbour to see if they could get the people to vote for Mr. Wilson to send a message to the PLP. With their efforts, Bennetts Harbour went 2 for 1 to Mr. Wilson – ZNS held onto that result, playing elevator music for 25 minutes before they reluctantly gave out the numbers. The PLP retained the seat in the 92 election, but in 97 the FNM picked it up. FNM leader Hubert Ingraham had made a serious effort to defeat his law partner Mr. Davis and the population of San Salvador had grown significantly from workers at the new Club Med. However, in ’02, Mr. Davis was re-elected with a two to one margin of victory.

This cycle sees him going up against Mrs. Sands, who happens to be the daughter of former PLP representative Oscar Johnson. That’s worth a few votes in that seat at least and she’s not new to politics, having been the FNM’s sacrificial candidate in the Over-The-Hill seat of Englerston in ’02. All the same, the advantage is with Mr. Davis as the incumbent and the PLP tilt of the seat. She would need big numbers in San Salvador to make up for the likely loss of Cat Island.

Rating: LIKELY PLP

SOUTH ELEUTHERA

PLP: Oswald Ingraham

FNM: Johnley Ferguson

Comprising all of the old Rock Sound seat and half of the Governor’s Harbour seat, the FNM first saw success in this seat in 1992. Rock Sound had always been a marginal PLP seat; usually it was their big margins in Greencastle that put them over the top. In '92, Rock Sound was the only Out Island seat that the FNM actually picked up as their candidate was from Greencastle and got enough votes there to win. The FNM wave in ’97 was more than enough to hold the seat despite the addition of new voters from the center seat, but the PLP counter-wave in ’02 knocked them out again. This race pits the incumbent Mr. Ingraham, the Speaker of the House, against Mr. Ferguson, the FNM’s unsuccessful ‘02 candidate for the MICAL seat.

In the Out Islands, incumbents from the governing party have more of an advantage then in Nassau as they can give away election time jobs to undecided voters. This has been going on for years and anyone in the islands can tell you. The FNM has to do some serious work to win this seat, in particular winning big in Rock Sound and Tarpum Bay. Right now the advantage has to be with the incumbent.

Rating: LEANING PLP

NORTH ELEUTHERA

FNM: Alvin Smith

PLP: Christfeild Johnson

Until 1997, Eleuthera was three seats. The FNM held the northern seat every time except for ’82 when the PLP won in by less than 20 votes. The central and south had gone PLP, though not often by huge margins. When the central seat was divided between the north and the south, this didn’t much change the equation in the north despite the fact that the PLP stronghold of Alice Town was now there. The FNM held the seat in ’97 and again in ’02 – one of only three seats in the Out Islands that they retained (the other two being on Abaco). Nothing has happened that would suggest the PLP has improved their position here. The fact that they took so long to name a candidate shows their weakness.

Rating : LIKELY FNM

SOUTH ABACO

FNM: Edison Key

PLP: Gary Sawyer

The South Abaco seat – where I happen to live, has gone through a few odd twists lately. A bit of background – it only went PLP once – in 1982, but that that time it was won by Mr. Key for the PLP. Mr. Key had first run in 1977 for the PLP when the opposition split. Mike Lightborn ran for the BDP and Cecil Wallace-Whitfield for the FNM. Mr. Whitfield was the leader of the FNM and his insistence on running for the Marsh Harbour seat over the objections of the local party was on of the reasons the party split. Mr. Lightborn won, but by only a handful of votes – the split nearly allowed Mr. Key to slip in. Mr. Lightborn chose not to run in ’82 and Mr. Key defeated Mr. Roscoe Thompson of the FNM by about 150 votes. In 1987, the FNM ran Fred Gotlieb and he reversed the numbers, winning the seat back from Mr. Key in a hard fight. In ’92, the PLP realized they could not beat Mr. Gotlieb as things stood, so they carved a third seat out of Abaco for Mr. Key to run in. Mr. Gotlieb went after Mr. Key in the reconfigured seat leaving the new Hope Town seat for Robert Sweeting but he fell short. In ’97, Abaco went back to two seats, setting up a match between Mr. Sweeting and Mr. Key – the result was a complete blowout by the FNM. In 2002 Mr. Key tried again, only to fall short in his efforts to knock out Mr. Sweeting despite the PLP wave.

Shortly after that, Mr. Key grew disillusioned with the PLP and resigned from the party, eventually joining the FNM. With Mr. Sweeting wanting to retire Mr. Key was able to secure the nomination for the seat. This will be his seventh run for the seat – his record is so far is 2/4. Opposing him is the PLP’s unsuccessful candidate for the Hope Town seat from the ’92 election.

The numbers are stacked against Mr. Sawyer. While some in the FNM are not happy to have their former nemesis running under their banner, it seems he will bring over some of his former PLP supporters. The PLP stronghold of Moores Island is the only thing ever gives the PLP any chance in Abaco. Mr. Sawyer better hope that he holds all the PLP votes there and that FNM’s stay home in droves.

Rating: LIKELY FNM

NORTH ABACO

FNM: Hubert Ingraham

PLP: Fritz Bootle

IND: Cay Russell/Mills

Hubert Ingraham first won this seat for the PLP in 1977. The PLP had first captured it in 1972 by four votes so it was not considered a slam-dunk for the PLP then. Many felt that the BDP’s candidate Cedric Parker had a real chance, but ’77 was a good year for the PLP as the opposition had split into two groups – the Bahamas Democratic Party (BDP) and the FNM. In 1982, the reunited FNM nominated Cecil Curling, but he was so sure he was going to get badly beaten; he left Abaco on the morning of the election rather than wait for the results. In the mid ‘80’s, Ingraham split from the PLP and wound up running as an independent in 1987. The PLP made an odd choice to run against him in the person of Wesley Campbell, a man who had run several times for the socialist Vanguard Party. The Vanguard was considered by most Bahamians (though obviously not by Vanguard party members) as a joke and given the party’s admiration of Cuba it also had an inaccurate reputation of being non-Christian. Campbell would have had an uphill struggle against Ingraham anyway, but this crippled him and he lost. At that point, it became clear that North Abaco was not a PLP seat, but an Ingraham seat. When Ingraham joined the FNM and became its leader no one seriously felt it was in danger, even when the PLP gerrymandered Dundas Town and Green Turtle Cay – two Ingraham strongholds – into a new seat called Hope Town. Ingraham won again in 1997 during the FNM’s wave and yet again in 2002 despite the PLP’s counter-wave.

This election sees a rematch between Ingraham and the PLP’s candidate from 2002, Fritz Bootle. Bootle has not been working the seat all that much in the meantime and there is no indication that there would have been a significant swing in any direction.

The X-factor here is the independent candidate Mr. Russell/Mills. While considered a rabble-rouser by some (he was recently arrested for allegedly assaulting the Island Administrator) there is no denying that he has a significant following, particularly among young people. Unlike Ingraham and Bootle, he comes from the southern portion of the seat and can be expected to draw strength from there as well.

None of this helps Mr. Bootle, though. The majority of his supporters would likely support the PLP if he were not running. Russell/Mills has an outside shot at reaching the 17% of votes needed to avoid losing his deposit, but his run all but guarantees a ninth straight victory for Mr. Ingraham.

Rating: SAFE FNM

The Playing Field

Unlike in the US, you do not get polls coming out every day, allowing you to judge how specific candidates are doing in various seats. The best you can do is read the tea leaves, look at past history and take your best shot. My intent is to 'rate' all 41 seats as they stand now and as things change - to the extent that this can be determined. For example, in the last election, the PLP candidate for the South Andros seat was considered to have had the upper hand until he made a joke that many in the area found rather offensive. If something like that happens in this election, this would change the rating of the seat. Also, a number of seats in suburban Nassau will be rated toss-ups. Elections are usually won or lost in these seats - things that happen on a national scale may affect the rating of these seats.
The boundry cuts are done - at this stage I am waiting to see the final map before making some judements about the Nassau seats, so I will start by rating those in the Out Islands. A few thoughts on the cuts - of course there was Gerrymandering. There always is - the FNM did it, the PLP did it before them and the UBP did it. Politicians always will. It can be a double-edged sword - if you try to protect too many of your incumbents, you may dilute your strenght and lose more seats than you otherwise might. I think the FNM was sensible not to make too much of a fuss about it, but one wishes they would change the system. Here's my proposal for a boundary commision:

One MP of the Governing Party
One MP of the Opposition Party
One Judge recomended by the Prime Minister
One Judge recomended by the Leader of the Opposition
The Surveyor General of the Bahamas

The Surveyor General is appointed by the Government, so the Governing party would have control in theory, but this position is usually held by a technocrat - not a politician - and along with the two judges, I think you would not see so much of the blatant gerrymandering.

That's my idea - the odds of something like that ever happening? 1 to 1,000,000 - politicians do not like to give up power over anything.

Hello

At this point, of course, I am talking to myself. I'll see how much time I have to put into this blog - it seems to me that it's very hard to get info on Bahamian politics online. I live in Abaco so I'm even more limited in information than those in Nassau can get. All the same, my brother and I have been following politics for years and have a fair amount of info from past elections. I hope to build this into a decent blog worth reading. Fingers crossed!