Friday, March 30, 2007
Nassau Seats
My MP is supposed to be giving me one, but if anyone has one can you scan it and email it to me? I'd be very thankful if you did.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Out Island Roundup
One note, I’m sure Mr. Bastian in
One other point; yes, I say ‘Out Islands’ instead of ‘
WEST END AND BIMINI
FNM: David Wallace
While the PLP won this seat in 1972, the FNM was poised to win it back in ’77 when the BDP stupidly opposed them. This vote splitting allowed the PLP’s Moses Hall to win with less than 50% of the vote. In ’82 with the opposition reunited, many felt that the FNM’s Arlington Butler would capture the seat, but he fell short again. The FNM failed to win the seat in ’87 and ’92 despite optimistic predictions that all of
Mr. Wallace lost to current MP Mr. Wilchcombe in 2002 by 405 votes and is now seeking a rematch. Again, we hear optimistic talk from FNMs about this seat, but I’m not buying it yet. It’s true that the project on the western end of Grand Bahama has yet to produce much for the area, but the fact remains that
On the plus side for the FNM, Bimini seems to switch from one party to the other every election (the FNM won the old Bimini seat in ’87 only to lose it in ’92) and the fact that the PLP took a polling division from what was already the smallest Grand Bahama seat in terms of numbers shows they must have some concern. Without that fact, I’d have put this in the likely category, but clearly his own party thinks there is some risk to Mr. Wilchcombe.
Ranking: LEAN PLP
EIGHT MILE ROCK
PLP: Caleb Outten
This seat was created in 1987 and has been won by the FNM in every election. The closest the PLP came to victory in ’02 when the FNM’s Lindy Russell held off the PLP’s Caleb Outten by less than 50 votes. Mr. Outten is back for another try as the seat while Mr. Russell has chosen to retire, leaving the FNM banner for insurance executive Mrs. Grant. This is fairly close to a write-off, though. The PLP has not earned any support from their handling of hurricane relief in this area and just added in an FNM polling division from
Ranking: LIKELY FNM
MARCO CITY
FNM: Zhivargo Laing
But by ’02, he was damaged goods and under a cloud of alleged corruption. Mr. Ingraham wanted him replaced as a candidate but he refused to give up the seat and the candidates committee agreed to re-nominate him. He lost by over 250 votes in what should have been one of the safest FNM seats in the country to Mrs. Bridgewater who had been working very hard.
Mrs. Bridgewater has continued to work the seat but as election time looms, she faces the twin obstacles of the seats natural FNM slant combined with the bad economy of
She faces Mr. Laing, the former FNM MP for Ft. Charlote. He's known as a tough campaigner with energy to match hers. Expect a lot of work to be done in this seat by both sides.
Rating: LEAN FNM
LUCAYA
PLP: Constance McDonald
The Lucaya seat was created in 1992 and Mr. Grant was the surprise winner of a primary the FNM held in the seat for the nomination. There was never any question he would win it; the PLP government created it as a ‘safe’ FNM seat in hopes of flipping one of the others. In the end, all it got them was another FNM MP. In 2002, PLP candidate Stephen Plakaris came within 200 votes of Mr. Grant, but that is as good as the PLP can be reasonable expected to do. Mrs. McDonald would need a tsunami to carry her to victory here.
Ranking: SAFE FNM
PINERIDGE
FNM: Kwasi Thompson
While
Rating: LEANING FNM
HIGH ROCK
PLP: Dr. Doswell Coakley
In the FNM’s bad year of 2002, only Hubert Ingraham and Brent Symonette (the current Leader and Deputy Leader) won a higher percentage of votes than Kenneth Russell. High Rock went PLP in 1968 when it was won by Maurice Moore, but he left the PLP with the ‘Dissident Eight’ and lost the seat in 1972 as an FNM. Running again for the FNM in 1977 and being unopposed by the BDP,
Ranking: SAFE FNM
EXUMA
FNM: Joshua Sears
Exuma went PLP in the 1970’s and they held it until 1997. Originally it consisted of two seats, Rolleville in the north and
In 1992, Exuma was reduced to one seat and while the FNM’s Lyn Holowesko ran a strong race, she was not able to overcome the PLP. In 1997 the FNM wave carried in Elliot Lockhart but he lost by a very small margin to the PLP’s Anthony Moss in ’02.
Since then, Exuma has opened a large resort, part of Prime Minister Christie’s ‘Anchor project’ strategy for developing the
Rating: LEAN PLP
NORTH ANDROS AND THE BERRY ISLANDS
FNM: Shandrice Rolle
The PLP won the
Now Peet faces a popular young businesswoman who lives in the constituency and he is being pressed hard. This seat had the only boundary change outside of New Providence and Grand Bahamas, as the southernmost town was moved from North Andros to
One interesting thing; according to The Punch, Mr. Peet threw up in his car upon losing the election in Holy Cross both in ‘92 and ‘97. If he looses again, will this be the third time he vomits from stress? All the same, I give him a very slight lead.
Rating: TOSS UP (ADVANTAGE PLP)
Monday, March 26, 2007
SOUTH ANDROS
PLP: Picewell Forbes
FNM: Marjorie Johnson
Once considered the bedrock of the PLP, they have been unable to win the seat since Sir Lynden Pindling stepped down in 1997. It was actually held by the UBP prior to the 1967 election when Sir Lynden took a gamble and left his safe seat in
The current
In 1997, Mangrove Cay and
In 2002 there was a three way race between Mr. Bosfeild for the FNM, Vincent Symonette for the PLP and independent Whitney Bastian. Bastian was a former PLP and some in the FNM hoped that he would draw off enough votes from Mr. Symonette to overcome the seat’s PLP bent to allow Mr. Bosfeild to retain it. Mr. Symonette hurt himself badly when he add-libbed a joke during a rally that many felt was crude. After the silver tongue of Sir Lynden this was quite a contrast. Mr. Bastian also poured a great deal of his own money into the race. In something of a surprise, Mr. Bastian came in first, pulling in 38% of the vote.
2007 finds Mr. Bastian running again as an independent to retain his seat. He faces Mr. Forbes, who seems to be a smoother candidate than Mr. Symonette and Mrs. Johnson, who has roots in the area. A lot could happen here; Mr. Bastian has considerable resources and had indicated he will bring these to bear in the campaign. The PLP and the FNM will get their die-hard voters (more of these are PLP than FNM in that seat) and Mr. Bastian will probably pull most of his votes from the PLP, but in the end result, we are likely to see a repeat of the 2002 results. If the FNM were to pull out, Mr. Bastian would have a clear advantage, but as it is his advantage is small.
Rating: LEANING INDEPENDENT.
LONG ISLAND
The PLP never had a chance here and they knew it, preferring not to waste time and money. Mr. Miller has some support, to be sure, and will probably get whatever PLP votes there are, but this is unlikely to be enough to overcome Mr. Cartwright.
Rating: LIKELY FNM
MICAL
FNM: Dion Foulks
First of all, can I say how much I hate the name of this constituency? Would it have been too much to call it Inagua, Mayaguana and the Windwards? And what makes Long Cay, an island with a bare handful of voters worthy of contributing a letter to the goofy acronym of a name, anyway?
Until ’97, this was two seats. The PLP first won Inagua in 1972 while the FNM held Crooked and Acklins. When ’77 rolled around, the PLP’s Wilbert Moss managed to win in Crooked and Acklins as well. However, in 1982 while Moss held his seat, the FNM’s Vernon Symonette picked up Inagua and held it until he retired in 02’. Mr. Moss won his seat two more times, but in 1990 was forced to resign when he was convicted of attempting to bribe a judge. In the bye-election, the FNM offered up their ’87 candidate (and former MP) Basil Kelly against the PLP’s Franklyn Walkine. No one seriously consider the governing party would lose in a bye-election and Mr. Walkine won by a large margin. Shortly after this, the FNM’s proposed candidate for the ’92 election literally vanished into the Bermuda Triangle along with several of his generals. It was assumed that their plane went down, but no trace was ever found. After this tragedy, the FNM did not put up a candidate for the seat, lining up behind Loftus Roker, a former PLP MP from
In 1997, the two seats became one and Mr. Symonette carried it for the FNM with a respectable margin but in 2002 the PLP’s Alfred Gray won it by a handful of votes over the FNM’s Johnley Ferguson.
This election sees Mr. Gray taking on Mr. Foulks, a former two-term FNM MP for Blue Hills in the suburbs of
Rating: TOSS UP
CAT ISLAND, RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR
FNM: Gladys Sands
Until 1968, this was two seats. Low population growth merged them into one and we can all be grateful that the persons who name constituencies did not call them the Columbus Isles like the people who organize the Bahama Games did. They were UBP until 68 and then Henry Bowen won the seat for the PLP. Oscar Johnson carried the PLP banner in ’72 only to be unseated by the BDP’s Erwin Knowles 5 years later. But Knowles switched parties, and ran successfully for the PLP in ’82 and ’87 and was appointed Minister of Agriculture before he was forced to resign in scandal during the run-up to the ’92 election. The FNM chose not to contest the bye-election and the PLP’s Mr. Davis was opposed by independent George Wilson. While they were officially boycotting it, as an experiment, the FNM focused on the town of
This cycle sees him going up against Mrs. Sands, who happens to be the daughter of former PLP representative Oscar Johnson. That’s worth a few votes in that seat at least and she’s not new to politics, having been the FNM’s sacrificial candidate in the Over-The-Hill seat of Englerston in ’02. All the same, the advantage is with Mr. Davis as the incumbent and the PLP tilt of the seat. She would need big numbers in
Rating: LIKELY PLP
SOUTH ELEUTHERA
PLP: Oswald Ingraham
FNM: Johnley Ferguson
Comprising all of the old Rock Sound seat and half of the Governor’s Harbour seat, the FNM first saw success in this seat in 1992. Rock Sound had always been a marginal PLP seat; usually it was their big margins in Greencastle that put them over the top. In '92, Rock Sound was the only Out Island seat that the FNM actually picked up as their candidate was from Greencastle and got enough votes there to win. The FNM wave in ’97 was more than enough to hold the seat despite the addition of new voters from the center seat, but the PLP counter-wave in ’02 knocked them out again. This race pits the incumbent Mr. Ingraham, the Speaker of the House, against Mr. Ferguson, the FNM’s unsuccessful ‘02 candidate for the MICAL seat.
In the
Rating: LEANING PLP
NORTH ELEUTHERA
PLP: Christfeild Johnson
Until 1997, Eleuthera was three seats. The FNM held the northern seat every time except for ’82 when the PLP won in by less than 20 votes. The central and south had gone PLP, though not often by huge margins. When the central seat was divided between the north and the south, this didn’t much change the equation in the north despite the fact that the PLP stronghold of Alice Town was now there. The FNM held the seat in ’97 and again in ’02 – one of only three seats in the
Rating : LIKELY FNM
SOUTH ABACO
FNM: Edison Key
PLP: Gary Sawyer
The
Shortly after that, Mr. Key grew disillusioned with the PLP and resigned from the party, eventually joining the FNM. With Mr. Sweeting wanting to retire Mr. Key was able to secure the nomination for the seat. This will be his seventh run for the seat – his record is so far is 2/4. Opposing him is the PLP’s unsuccessful candidate for the Hope Town seat from the ’92 election.
The numbers are stacked against Mr. Sawyer. While some in the FNM are not happy to have their former nemesis running under their banner, it seems he will bring over some of his former PLP supporters. The PLP stronghold of
Rating: LIKELY FNM
NORTH ABACO
FNM: Hubert Ingraham
PLP: Fritz Bootle
Hubert Ingraham first won this seat for the PLP in 1977. The PLP had first captured it in 1972 by four votes so it was not considered a slam-dunk for the PLP then. Many felt that the BDP’s candidate Cedric Parker had a real chance, but ’77 was a good year for the PLP as the opposition had split into two groups – the Bahamas Democratic Party (BDP) and the FNM. In 1982, the reunited FNM nominated Cecil Curling, but he was so sure he was going to get badly beaten; he left Abaco on the morning of the election rather than wait for the results. In the mid ‘80’s, Ingraham split from the PLP and wound up running as an independent in 1987. The PLP made an odd choice to run against him in the person of Wesley Campbell, a man who had run several times for the socialist Vanguard Party. The Vanguard was considered by most Bahamians (though obviously not by Vanguard party members) as a joke and given the party’s admiration of
This election sees a rematch between Ingraham and the PLP’s candidate from 2002, Fritz Bootle.
The X-factor here is the independent candidate Mr. Russell/Mills. While considered a rabble-rouser by some (he was recently arrested for allegedly assaulting the Island Administrator) there is no denying that he has a significant following, particularly among young people. Unlike Ingraham and
None of this helps Mr. Bootle, though. The majority of his supporters would likely support the PLP if he were not running. Russell/Mills has an outside shot at reaching the 17% of votes needed to avoid losing his deposit, but his run all but guarantees a ninth straight victory for Mr. Ingraham.
Rating: SAFE FNM
The Playing Field
The boundry cuts are done - at this stage I am waiting to see the final map before making some judements about the Nassau seats, so I will start by rating those in the Out Islands. A few thoughts on the cuts - of course there was Gerrymandering. There always is - the FNM did it, the PLP did it before them and the UBP did it. Politicians always will. It can be a double-edged sword - if you try to protect too many of your incumbents, you may dilute your strenght and lose more seats than you otherwise might. I think the FNM was sensible not to make too much of a fuss about it, but one wishes they would change the system. Here's my proposal for a boundary commision:
One MP of the Governing Party
One MP of the Opposition Party
One Judge recomended by the Prime Minister
One Judge recomended by the Leader of the Opposition
The Surveyor General of the Bahamas
The Surveyor General is appointed by the Government, so the Governing party would have control in theory, but this position is usually held by a technocrat - not a politician - and along with the two judges, I think you would not see so much of the blatant gerrymandering.
That's my idea - the odds of something like that ever happening? 1 to 1,000,000 - politicians do not like to give up power over anything.