Friday, March 30, 2007

Nassau Seats

No, I have not started to rank the Nassau seats yet. There are a couple of reasons for that - mostly because the final list of candidates was just approved this week but also because I have yet to get my hands on a good map of the cuts. I have copys of the NP seat map going back to 1982 and in most cases, have the breakdown of the votes by polling division. I'd really like to go through every seat on a case-by-case basis and see how things look - the 1997 and 2002 results are not all that helpful because those were both 'wave' elections, but when you look at the older data some stuff does become more clear. I could put up rankings for a few of the 'safe' seats, but I'd really rather do them when all my info is in front of me.
My MP is supposed to be giving me one, but if anyone has one can you scan it and email it to me? I'd be very thankful if you did.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Out Island Roundup

So far that makes the score 9 for the FNM (3 Safe, 4 Likely and 2 Lean) 1 Independend (Lean) , 4 PLP (1 Likely and 3 Lean) and two toss-ups (one with a PLP advantage). If that sounds unrealistic, remember that even in the 2002 PLP wave, the FNM still won 7 of 16 seats if you count Mr. Cartwright in Long Island. That means that Nassau will, as usual, be the key to the election. The FNM will go into Nassau with a slight advantage in seats, but they must split New Providence if they want to win. The PLP must do a little bit better than split, they must win an outright majority.

One note, I’m sure Mr. Bastian in South Andros has this fantasy where the FNM and the PLP each get 20 seats and he wins his seat. Which party would he choose to side with in that case? Perry Christie successfully kept him from getting the PLP nomination that he so badly wanted in 2002, but that does not mean that he would not align with them if they made him a good enough deal. No doubt both Christie and Ingraham are crossing their fingers that they don’t face that situation the morning after the election.

One other point; yes, I say ‘Out Islands’ instead of ‘Family Islands’ because I’ve always considered that a most retarded term. I don’t know who came up with it, but it’s boneheaded.

WEST END AND BIMINI

PLP: Obie Wilchcombe

FNM: David Wallace

While the PLP won this seat in 1972, the FNM was poised to win it back in ’77 when the BDP stupidly opposed them. This vote splitting allowed the PLP’s Moses Hall to win with less than 50% of the vote. In ’82 with the opposition reunited, many felt that the FNM’s Arlington Butler would capture the seat, but he fell short again. The FNM failed to win the seat in ’87 and ’92 despite optimistic predictions that all of Grand Bahama would finally be FNM. In the wave of ’97, the FNM’s David Wallace finally brought home the seat, which was expanded to include Bimini for the first time.

Mr. Wallace lost to current MP Mr. Wilchcombe in 2002 by 405 votes and is now seeking a rematch. Again, we hear optimistic talk from FNMs about this seat, but I’m not buying it yet. It’s true that the project on the western end of Grand Bahama has yet to produce much for the area, but the fact remains that West End is a PLP town. Also, Mr. Wilchcombe has to be considered a good MP and his actions during the recent hurricanes were considered by most to be heroic and he risked himself to help his constituents.

On the plus side for the FNM, Bimini seems to switch from one party to the other every election (the FNM won the old Bimini seat in ’87 only to lose it in ’92) and the fact that the PLP took a polling division from what was already the smallest Grand Bahama seat in terms of numbers shows they must have some concern. Without that fact, I’d have put this in the likely category, but clearly his own party thinks there is some risk to Mr. Wilchcombe.

Ranking: LEAN PLP

EIGHT MILE ROCK

FNM: Verna Grant

PLP: Caleb Outten

This seat was created in 1987 and has been won by the FNM in every election. The closest the PLP came to victory in ’02 when the FNM’s Lindy Russell held off the PLP’s Caleb Outten by less than 50 votes. Mr. Outten is back for another try as the seat while Mr. Russell has chosen to retire, leaving the FNM banner for insurance executive Mrs. Grant. This is fairly close to a write-off, though. The PLP has not earned any support from their handling of hurricane relief in this area and just added in an FNM polling division from West End. Mr. Outten will need to pull a rabbit out of his hat to pull this one off.

Ranking: LIKELY FNM

MARCO CITY

PLP: Pleasant Bridgewater

FNM: Zhivargo Laing

Marco City was created in 1982 and won by the FNM’s C.A. Smith. The late Cecil Wallace-Whitfield took over the seat in 1987 when he and Mr. Smith switched seats and he won by over 600 votes. Unfortunately, he soon was discovered to have cancer and despite a valiant fight, he finally succumbed to the disease in 1991. The PLP ran Albert Gray in the bye-election against the FNM’s David Thompson and pulled out all the stops, hoping to crush the momentum that the FNM was starting to build with the addition of Hubert Ingraham as the new leader replacing Sir Cecil, but they fell short. They tried to spin it into a victory since they had cut the FNM’s margin from 600 down to fewer than 200, but it was not perceived that way and Mr. Thompson went on to win large margins in ’92 and ’92.

But by ’02, he was damaged goods and under a cloud of alleged corruption. Mr. Ingraham wanted him replaced as a candidate but he refused to give up the seat and the candidates committee agreed to re-nominate him. He lost by over 250 votes in what should have been one of the safest FNM seats in the country to Mrs. Bridgewater who had been working very hard.

Mrs. Bridgewater has continued to work the seat but as election time looms, she faces the twin obstacles of the seats natural FNM slant combined with the bad economy of Freeport. Either would be hard to overcome, but with both in place, she’s starting this race from behind.

She faces Mr. Laing, the former FNM MP for Ft. Charlote. He's known as a tough campaigner with energy to match hers. Expect a lot of work to be done in this seat by both sides.

Rating: LEAN FNM

LUCAYA

FNM: Neko Grant

PLP: Constance McDonald

The Lucaya seat was created in 1992 and Mr. Grant was the surprise winner of a primary the FNM held in the seat for the nomination. There was never any question he would win it; the PLP government created it as a ‘safe’ FNM seat in hopes of flipping one of the others. In the end, all it got them was another FNM MP. In 2002, PLP candidate Stephen Plakaris came within 200 votes of Mr. Grant, but that is as good as the PLP can be reasonable expected to do. Mrs. McDonald would need a tsunami to carry her to victory here.

Ranking: SAFE FNM

PINERIDGE

PLP: Anne Percentie

FNM: Kwasi Thompson

While Grand Bahama has always been considered ‘FNM Country’, Mrs. Percentie racked up an impressive 60% of the vote in 2002. In fact, outside of West End, Pineridge has been one of the more competitive seats in recent years. Garnet Levarity won it for the FNM in 1977 and handed it to Cecil Wallace-Whitfield in 1982. Whitfield switched with Marco City MP CA Smith in 1987 due to the way the boundaries had been changed, but Smith’s margin of victory was less than 200 votes. While he did well in ’92 and ’97, the PLP wave caught him unprepared and left him high and dry. Pineridge is quite winnable for the FNM but young Mr. Thompson will have to do a lot of hard work. This seat is not what you would call a walk. Mrs. Percentie has the disadvantage of a severe economic downturn in Freeport to contend with and that may be the thing that prevents her from holding the seat.

Rating: LEANING FNM

HIGH ROCK

FNM: Kenneth Russell

PLP: Dr. Doswell Coakley

In the FNM’s bad year of 2002, only Hubert Ingraham and Brent Symonette (the current Leader and Deputy Leader) won a higher percentage of votes than Kenneth Russell. High Rock went PLP in 1968 when it was won by Maurice Moore, but he left the PLP with the ‘Dissident Eight’ and lost the seat in 1972 as an FNM. Running again for the FNM in 1977 and being unopposed by the BDP, Moore regained the seat and held it until he retired in 1997 when Mr. Russell took it over. I don’t think even the most optimistic PLP sees a path for Mr. Coakley to win baring some catastrophic meltdown by Mr. Russell.

Ranking: SAFE FNM

EXUMA

PLP: Anthony Moss

FNM: Joshua Sears

Exuma went PLP in the 1970’s and they held it until 1997. Originally it consisted of two seats, Rolleville in the north and George Town in the south. George Town was considered winnable for the FNM while Rolleville was usually written off. In the 1977 election, in the three way FNM-BDP-PLP race, Rolleville FNM candidate Wydian Pyfrom became a trivia question (and punch line) by receiving NO votes – the only major party candidate in Bahamian history to earn that dubious honor.

In 1992, Exuma was reduced to one seat and while the FNM’s Lyn Holowesko ran a strong race, she was not able to overcome the PLP. In 1997 the FNM wave carried in Elliot Lockhart but he lost by a very small margin to the PLP’s Anthony Moss in ’02.

Since then, Exuma has opened a large resort, part of Prime Minister Christie’s ‘Anchor project’ strategy for developing the Out Islands. This has brought an influx of people as well as some serious social problems. While this seems to have put off some Exuma natives, those new residents are obviously employed and perhaps more likely to support the status quo. Moss did not win by much in ’02 despite the PLP wave, but the game in Exuma has changed since then. Former diplomat Mr. Sears will need all his powers of persuasion if he wants to make it to parliament

Rating: LEAN PLP

NORTH ANDROS AND THE BERRY ISLANDS

PLP: Vincent Peet

FNM: Shandrice Rolle

The PLP won the Nichols Town seat in 1972, but it was never considered safe like the rest of Andros. Former MP Peter Christie made a strong run to recapture the seat for the BDP in 1977 and Henry Bostwick ran hard in ’82 as did Dr. Nigel Lewis in ’87 and ’92. In 1997, the FNM finally won it in their sweep, with Earl Deveaux becoming the MP. The PLP recaptured it in 2002 with former Holy Cross MP Vincent Peet winning 55% of the vote.

Now Peet faces a popular young businesswoman who lives in the constituency and he is being pressed hard. This seat had the only boundary change outside of New Providence and Grand Bahamas, as the southernmost town was moved from North Andros to South Andros. This town was considered marginally FNM and shows evidence of the PLP trying to shore up Mr. Peet.

One interesting thing; according to The Punch, Mr. Peet threw up in his car upon losing the election in Holy Cross both in ‘92 and ‘97. If he looses again, will this be the third time he vomits from stress? All the same, I give him a very slight lead.

Rating: TOSS UP (ADVANTAGE PLP)

Monday, March 26, 2007

SOUTH ANDROS

IND: Whitney Basitan

PLP: Picewell Forbes

FNM: Marjorie Johnson

Once considered the bedrock of the PLP, they have been unable to win the seat since Sir Lynden Pindling stepped down in 1997. It was actually held by the UBP prior to the 1967 election when Sir Lynden took a gamble and left his safe seat in Nassau to see if he could pick it up. His gamble paid off; without his effort, the UPB likely would have retained it and held the government for five more years. There is no doubt that he was loved by many in the Kemp’s Bay Constituency; more often than not he defeated the FNM candidate so badly that they would not make the 17% threshold needed to keep their deposit.

The current South Andros seat also includes the former seat of Mangrove Cay, another PLP stronghold. The FNM did not make a serious run for this seat until 1992 and while they did not defeat the incumbent Dr. Norman Gay, they did much better than they ever had before.

In 1997, Mangrove Cay and Kemps Bay were joined into one and Sir Lynden ran against the FNM’s Ronald Bosfeild. Mr. Bosfeild ran a respectable race – the first one against Sir Lynden since 1967, but it was not enough and Mr. Pindling was the only PLP to win his seat in the Out Islands. After the election, with the PLP’s abysmal performance, Mr. Pindling stepped down from parliament, triggering a bye-election. The FNM put up Mr. Bosfeild again and this time he was able to win the seat, the first time a seat had changed hands in a bye-election in over 40 years.

In 2002 there was a three way race between Mr. Bosfeild for the FNM, Vincent Symonette for the PLP and independent Whitney Bastian. Bastian was a former PLP and some in the FNM hoped that he would draw off enough votes from Mr. Symonette to overcome the seat’s PLP bent to allow Mr. Bosfeild to retain it. Mr. Symonette hurt himself badly when he add-libbed a joke during a rally that many felt was crude. After the silver tongue of Sir Lynden this was quite a contrast. Mr. Bastian also poured a great deal of his own money into the race. In something of a surprise, Mr. Bastian came in first, pulling in 38% of the vote.

2007 finds Mr. Bastian running again as an independent to retain his seat. He faces Mr. Forbes, who seems to be a smoother candidate than Mr. Symonette and Mrs. Johnson, who has roots in the area. A lot could happen here; Mr. Bastian has considerable resources and had indicated he will bring these to bear in the campaign. The PLP and the FNM will get their die-hard voters (more of these are PLP than FNM in that seat) and Mr. Bastian will probably pull most of his votes from the PLP, but in the end result, we are likely to see a repeat of the 2002 results. If the FNM were to pull out, Mr. Bastian would have a clear advantage, but as it is his advantage is small.

Rating: LEANING INDEPENDENT.

LONG ISLAND

FNM: Larry Cartwright

IND: James Miller

Long Island was two seats until 1992 and has always been strongly FNM. The PLP won the seat in the North (Deadman’s Cay) in 1977 and held it until for three elections, but in ’92 it was overwhelmed by the FNM south. South Long Island (Clarence Town), by the way, is the only place in the Out Islands never to be represented by the PLP. Jimmy Knowles held Clarence Town for the FNM from 1977 onwards until 2002. The PLP saw no point contesting the seat and left it to an independent; Mr. Larry Cartwright who was also FNM and felt that he should have gotten the nomination instead of Mr. Knowles. He got the PLP votes and enough FNM votes to capture the seat from Mr. Knowles but has lately rejoined the FNM. In something of a repeat from 2002, he faces Mr. Miller, the FNM’s former MP for Cat Island and former candidate for the Deadman’s Cay seat.

The PLP never had a chance here and they knew it, preferring not to waste time and money. Mr. Miller has some support, to be sure, and will probably get whatever PLP votes there are, but this is unlikely to be enough to overcome Mr. Cartwright.

Rating: LIKELY FNM

MICAL

PLP: Alfred Gray
FNM: Dion Foulks

First of all, can I say how much I hate the name of this constituency? Would it have been too much to call it Inagua, Mayaguana and the Windwards? And what makes Long Cay, an island with a bare handful of voters worthy of contributing a letter to the goofy acronym of a name, anyway?

Until ’97, this was two seats. The PLP first won Inagua in 1972 while the FNM held Crooked and Acklins. When ’77 rolled around, the PLP’s Wilbert Moss managed to win in Crooked and Acklins as well. However, in 1982 while Moss held his seat, the FNM’s Vernon Symonette picked up Inagua and held it until he retired in 02’. Mr. Moss won his seat two more times, but in 1990 was forced to resign when he was convicted of attempting to bribe a judge. In the bye-election, the FNM offered up their ’87 candidate (and former MP) Basil Kelly against the PLP’s Franklyn Walkine. No one seriously consider the governing party would lose in a bye-election and Mr. Walkine won by a large margin. Shortly after this, the FNM’s proposed candidate for the ’92 election literally vanished into the Bermuda Triangle along with several of his generals. It was assumed that their plane went down, but no trace was ever found. After this tragedy, the FNM did not put up a candidate for the seat, lining up behind Loftus Roker, a former PLP MP from Nichols Town who had quit the party and was running independent. Mr. Roker came close, but Walkine managed to hold onto his seat.

In 1997, the two seats became one and Mr. Symonette carried it for the FNM with a respectable margin but in 2002 the PLP’s Alfred Gray won it by a handful of votes over the FNM’s Johnley Ferguson.

This election sees Mr. Gray taking on Mr. Foulks, a former two-term FNM MP for Blue Hills in the suburbs of Nassau and the son of Arthur Foulks, one of the founding members of the FNM. Mr. Gray probably has a bit of an advantage in Crooked, Acklins and Mayaguana, but the big question is Inagua. Mathew Town has tended to be marginally FNM and there is a serious problem labor problem right now with Morton Salt. Morton is the lifeblood of Inagua as there is no tourist industry to speak of and so any problem there is likely to be very unsettling to the people. Will the PLP, as the incumbent party, get blamed for not solving the problem? Or will they be able to pull out an agreement in time for the election? Foulks is known to be a good campaigner but Gray is no slouch, either. Every vote is going to count in this one.

Rating: TOSS UP

CAT ISLAND, RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR

PLP: Phillip ‘Brave’ Davis

FNM: Gladys Sands

Until 1968, this was two seats. Low population growth merged them into one and we can all be grateful that the persons who name constituencies did not call them the Columbus Isles like the people who organize the Bahama Games did. They were UBP until 68 and then Henry Bowen won the seat for the PLP. Oscar Johnson carried the PLP banner in ’72 only to be unseated by the BDP’s Erwin Knowles 5 years later. But Knowles switched parties, and ran successfully for the PLP in ’82 and ’87 and was appointed Minister of Agriculture before he was forced to resign in scandal during the run-up to the ’92 election. The FNM chose not to contest the bye-election and the PLP’s Mr. Davis was opposed by independent George Wilson. While they were officially boycotting it, as an experiment, the FNM focused on the town of Benetts Harbour to see if they could get the people to vote for Mr. Wilson to send a message to the PLP. With their efforts, Bennetts Harbour went 2 for 1 to Mr. Wilson – ZNS held onto that result, playing elevator music for 25 minutes before they reluctantly gave out the numbers. The PLP retained the seat in the 92 election, but in 97 the FNM picked it up. FNM leader Hubert Ingraham had made a serious effort to defeat his law partner Mr. Davis and the population of San Salvador had grown significantly from workers at the new Club Med. However, in ’02, Mr. Davis was re-elected with a two to one margin of victory.

This cycle sees him going up against Mrs. Sands, who happens to be the daughter of former PLP representative Oscar Johnson. That’s worth a few votes in that seat at least and she’s not new to politics, having been the FNM’s sacrificial candidate in the Over-The-Hill seat of Englerston in ’02. All the same, the advantage is with Mr. Davis as the incumbent and the PLP tilt of the seat. She would need big numbers in San Salvador to make up for the likely loss of Cat Island.

Rating: LIKELY PLP

SOUTH ELEUTHERA

PLP: Oswald Ingraham

FNM: Johnley Ferguson

Comprising all of the old Rock Sound seat and half of the Governor’s Harbour seat, the FNM first saw success in this seat in 1992. Rock Sound had always been a marginal PLP seat; usually it was their big margins in Greencastle that put them over the top. In '92, Rock Sound was the only Out Island seat that the FNM actually picked up as their candidate was from Greencastle and got enough votes there to win. The FNM wave in ’97 was more than enough to hold the seat despite the addition of new voters from the center seat, but the PLP counter-wave in ’02 knocked them out again. This race pits the incumbent Mr. Ingraham, the Speaker of the House, against Mr. Ferguson, the FNM’s unsuccessful ‘02 candidate for the MICAL seat.

In the Out Islands, incumbents from the governing party have more of an advantage then in Nassau as they can give away election time jobs to undecided voters. This has been going on for years and anyone in the islands can tell you. The FNM has to do some serious work to win this seat, in particular winning big in Rock Sound and Tarpum Bay. Right now the advantage has to be with the incumbent.

Rating: LEANING PLP

NORTH ELEUTHERA

FNM: Alvin Smith

PLP: Christfeild Johnson

Until 1997, Eleuthera was three seats. The FNM held the northern seat every time except for ’82 when the PLP won in by less than 20 votes. The central and south had gone PLP, though not often by huge margins. When the central seat was divided between the north and the south, this didn’t much change the equation in the north despite the fact that the PLP stronghold of Alice Town was now there. The FNM held the seat in ’97 and again in ’02 – one of only three seats in the Out Islands that they retained (the other two being on Abaco). Nothing has happened that would suggest the PLP has improved their position here. The fact that they took so long to name a candidate shows their weakness.

Rating : LIKELY FNM

SOUTH ABACO

FNM: Edison Key

PLP: Gary Sawyer

The South Abaco seat – where I happen to live, has gone through a few odd twists lately. A bit of background – it only went PLP once – in 1982, but that that time it was won by Mr. Key for the PLP. Mr. Key had first run in 1977 for the PLP when the opposition split. Mike Lightborn ran for the BDP and Cecil Wallace-Whitfield for the FNM. Mr. Whitfield was the leader of the FNM and his insistence on running for the Marsh Harbour seat over the objections of the local party was on of the reasons the party split. Mr. Lightborn won, but by only a handful of votes – the split nearly allowed Mr. Key to slip in. Mr. Lightborn chose not to run in ’82 and Mr. Key defeated Mr. Roscoe Thompson of the FNM by about 150 votes. In 1987, the FNM ran Fred Gotlieb and he reversed the numbers, winning the seat back from Mr. Key in a hard fight. In ’92, the PLP realized they could not beat Mr. Gotlieb as things stood, so they carved a third seat out of Abaco for Mr. Key to run in. Mr. Gotlieb went after Mr. Key in the reconfigured seat leaving the new Hope Town seat for Robert Sweeting but he fell short. In ’97, Abaco went back to two seats, setting up a match between Mr. Sweeting and Mr. Key – the result was a complete blowout by the FNM. In 2002 Mr. Key tried again, only to fall short in his efforts to knock out Mr. Sweeting despite the PLP wave.

Shortly after that, Mr. Key grew disillusioned with the PLP and resigned from the party, eventually joining the FNM. With Mr. Sweeting wanting to retire Mr. Key was able to secure the nomination for the seat. This will be his seventh run for the seat – his record is so far is 2/4. Opposing him is the PLP’s unsuccessful candidate for the Hope Town seat from the ’92 election.

The numbers are stacked against Mr. Sawyer. While some in the FNM are not happy to have their former nemesis running under their banner, it seems he will bring over some of his former PLP supporters. The PLP stronghold of Moores Island is the only thing ever gives the PLP any chance in Abaco. Mr. Sawyer better hope that he holds all the PLP votes there and that FNM’s stay home in droves.

Rating: LIKELY FNM

NORTH ABACO

FNM: Hubert Ingraham

PLP: Fritz Bootle

IND: Cay Russell/Mills

Hubert Ingraham first won this seat for the PLP in 1977. The PLP had first captured it in 1972 by four votes so it was not considered a slam-dunk for the PLP then. Many felt that the BDP’s candidate Cedric Parker had a real chance, but ’77 was a good year for the PLP as the opposition had split into two groups – the Bahamas Democratic Party (BDP) and the FNM. In 1982, the reunited FNM nominated Cecil Curling, but he was so sure he was going to get badly beaten; he left Abaco on the morning of the election rather than wait for the results. In the mid ‘80’s, Ingraham split from the PLP and wound up running as an independent in 1987. The PLP made an odd choice to run against him in the person of Wesley Campbell, a man who had run several times for the socialist Vanguard Party. The Vanguard was considered by most Bahamians (though obviously not by Vanguard party members) as a joke and given the party’s admiration of Cuba it also had an inaccurate reputation of being non-Christian. Campbell would have had an uphill struggle against Ingraham anyway, but this crippled him and he lost. At that point, it became clear that North Abaco was not a PLP seat, but an Ingraham seat. When Ingraham joined the FNM and became its leader no one seriously felt it was in danger, even when the PLP gerrymandered Dundas Town and Green Turtle Cay – two Ingraham strongholds – into a new seat called Hope Town. Ingraham won again in 1997 during the FNM’s wave and yet again in 2002 despite the PLP’s counter-wave.

This election sees a rematch between Ingraham and the PLP’s candidate from 2002, Fritz Bootle. Bootle has not been working the seat all that much in the meantime and there is no indication that there would have been a significant swing in any direction.

The X-factor here is the independent candidate Mr. Russell/Mills. While considered a rabble-rouser by some (he was recently arrested for allegedly assaulting the Island Administrator) there is no denying that he has a significant following, particularly among young people. Unlike Ingraham and Bootle, he comes from the southern portion of the seat and can be expected to draw strength from there as well.

None of this helps Mr. Bootle, though. The majority of his supporters would likely support the PLP if he were not running. Russell/Mills has an outside shot at reaching the 17% of votes needed to avoid losing his deposit, but his run all but guarantees a ninth straight victory for Mr. Ingraham.


Rating: SAFE FNM

The Playing Field

Unlike in the US, you do not get polls coming out every day, allowing you to judge how specific candidates are doing in various seats. The best you can do is read the tea leaves, look at past history and take your best shot. My intent is to 'rate' all 41 seats as they stand now and as things change - to the extent that this can be determined. For example, in the last election, the PLP candidate for the South Andros seat was considered to have had the upper hand until he made a joke that many in the area found rather offensive. If something like that happens in this election, this would change the rating of the seat. Also, a number of seats in suburban Nassau will be rated toss-ups. Elections are usually won or lost in these seats - things that happen on a national scale may affect the rating of these seats.
The boundry cuts are done - at this stage I am waiting to see the final map before making some judements about the Nassau seats, so I will start by rating those in the Out Islands. A few thoughts on the cuts - of course there was Gerrymandering. There always is - the FNM did it, the PLP did it before them and the UBP did it. Politicians always will. It can be a double-edged sword - if you try to protect too many of your incumbents, you may dilute your strenght and lose more seats than you otherwise might. I think the FNM was sensible not to make too much of a fuss about it, but one wishes they would change the system. Here's my proposal for a boundary commision:

One MP of the Governing Party
One MP of the Opposition Party
One Judge recomended by the Prime Minister
One Judge recomended by the Leader of the Opposition
The Surveyor General of the Bahamas

The Surveyor General is appointed by the Government, so the Governing party would have control in theory, but this position is usually held by a technocrat - not a politician - and along with the two judges, I think you would not see so much of the blatant gerrymandering.

That's my idea - the odds of something like that ever happening? 1 to 1,000,000 - politicians do not like to give up power over anything.

Hello

At this point, of course, I am talking to myself. I'll see how much time I have to put into this blog - it seems to me that it's very hard to get info on Bahamian politics online. I live in Abaco so I'm even more limited in information than those in Nassau can get. All the same, my brother and I have been following politics for years and have a fair amount of info from past elections. I hope to build this into a decent blog worth reading. Fingers crossed!