I had rated this seat Leaning Independent, but I'm changing it. This is for two reasons - I've gotten some reports from the ground there by someone whose instincts I trust and also because I think that being and independent is a big disadvantage in this election cycle. From 1972 to now, there were only two cycles that independents managed to win seats - '87 and '02 and there were very specific reasons for those cases and none of those conditions exist today. The FNM's base in the seat is about 25-30% of the voters - I predict the winner will get about 40%, but I'm now thinking it's going to be the PLP.
Ranking: LEAN PLP
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