PLP: Frank Smith
FNM: Reece Chipman
More than perhaps any other seat, the PLP gerrymandered this one to their advantage. When it was created in ’02, Perry Christie was so upset that he abandoned it despite the fact that most of his old Centerville seat was in it. He didn’t think he could win and he jumped over to the safe seat of Farm Road (and caused that whole Bradley Roberts/Rev Moss mix-up). Frank Smith was put up as a sacraficial lamb in this seat that was more of the old Shirlea seat than anything else - an FNM stronghold - but the wave crashed over even here. When the PLP got their hands on the knife, the made some serious changes. Bye-bye to nearly everything north of Shirley Street and hello Kemp Road. This seat is now more the old Anne's Town, Salem and Centerville seats than Shirlea. There are some FNM areas left along Macky Street and up in Palmdale, but many more PLP areas. Mr. Smith has a real advantage here - Mr. Chipman is going to have to break into some of the PLP areas to win. It's doable - the FNM won Anne's Town and Salem in 1992 after all, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Ranking: LEAN PLP
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