New Providence Roundup

Well, counting the seats that makes 12 for the FNM (3 safe, 4 likely and 5 leaning) and 11 for the PLP (3 save, 2 likely and 5 leaning) with two toss ups (both with a very slight FNM advantage. You need 21 to win, so if you add in the 9 FNM seats from the Out Islands, you only just get that number. The PLP only needs to switch a few of those seats to win and that's quite doable. Really, the battleground is the suburbs on Nassau. The PLP will win their Over The Hill base and the FNM will capture the ends of the island - all the rest will be fought for.

One thing to note - in the old days, there were more Over The Hill seats thus the PLP had a larger base. Demographics have changed and there are only four true Over The Hill seats left while the FNM's base has expanded. Combined with their stronger position in the Out Islands this gives them a very slight advantage. In further posts, I'll give you specific polling divisions to watch for on election night so you can tell how various seats (and the overall election) are going. Stay tuned!