Rallies

Rallies don’t vote – people do. Of course, rallies are made up of people who DO vote but there is a difference. The FNM has had some problems in the past with this – their candidates in the suburban seats on Nassau (and those seats are the key to winning the election) get up at a rally and see the thousands and thousands and think that there is no way that they can loose. This had led to those candidates running some sloppy and lazy campaigns and losing seats that they should have won.

I say this because based on what you see at the rallies, you would expect an FNM victory is a sure thing. Both sides are drawing huge numbers, but it’s clear that the FNM is getting the larger turnout. I think that the FNM has learned not to count on large rallies to pull them over the finish line – I’m sure Hubert Ingraham knows it.

I think this short election season is going to play to the FNM’s advantage – because the seats were cut so late their candidates can honestly say that they’ve had less than two months of knowing where exactly they would be running. On the other hand, other than one small area out east, all of New Providence was represented by the PLP – those MP’s who did not do a good job of covering their constituencies (and there are always some) will have hurt the PLP’s chances in the areas they represented. The FNM seems to have the momentum and the clock is running out. As long as the people who the FNM nominated for the key seats are out there working hard, the FNM should capture the majority.