SOUTH ABACO

FNM: Edison Key

PLP: Gary Sawyer

The South Abaco seat – where I happen to live, has gone through a few odd twists lately. A bit of background – it only went PLP once – in 1982, but that that time it was won by Mr. Key for the PLP. Mr. Key had first run in 1977 for the PLP when the opposition split. Mike Lightborn ran for the BDP and Cecil Wallace-Whitfield for the FNM. Mr. Whitfield was the leader of the FNM and his insistence on running for the Marsh Harbour seat over the objections of the local party was on of the reasons the party split. Mr. Lightborn won, but by only a handful of votes – the split nearly allowed Mr. Key to slip in. Mr. Lightborn chose not to run in ’82 and Mr. Key defeated Mr. Roscoe Thompson of the FNM by about 150 votes. In 1987, the FNM ran Fred Gotlieb and he reversed the numbers, winning the seat back from Mr. Key in a hard fight. In ’92, the PLP realized they could not beat Mr. Gotlieb as things stood, so they carved a third seat out of Abaco for Mr. Key to run in. Mr. Gotlieb went after Mr. Key in the reconfigured seat leaving the new Hope Town seat for Robert Sweeting but he fell short. In ’97, Abaco went back to two seats, setting up a match between Mr. Sweeting and Mr. Key – the result was a complete blowout by the FNM. In 2002 Mr. Key tried again, only to fall short in his efforts to knock out Mr. Sweeting despite the PLP wave.

Shortly after that, Mr. Key grew disillusioned with the PLP and resigned from the party, eventually joining the FNM. With Mr. Sweeting wanting to retire Mr. Key was able to secure the nomination for the seat. This will be his seventh run for the seat – his record is so far is 2/4. Opposing him is the PLP’s unsuccessful candidate for the Hope Town seat from the ’92 election.

The numbers are stacked against Mr. Sawyer. While some in the FNM are not happy to have their former nemesis running under their banner, it seems he will bring over some of his former PLP supporters. The PLP stronghold of Moores Island is the only thing ever gives the PLP any chance in Abaco. Mr. Sawyer better hope that he holds all the PLP votes there and that FNM’s stay home in droves.

Rating: LIKELY FNM