The Playing Field

Unlike in the US, you do not get polls coming out every day, allowing you to judge how specific candidates are doing in various seats. The best you can do is read the tea leaves, look at past history and take your best shot. My intent is to 'rate' all 41 seats as they stand now and as things change - to the extent that this can be determined. For example, in the last election, the PLP candidate for the South Andros seat was considered to have had the upper hand until he made a joke that many in the area found rather offensive. If something like that happens in this election, this would change the rating of the seat. Also, a number of seats in suburban Nassau will be rated toss-ups. Elections are usually won or lost in these seats - things that happen on a national scale may affect the rating of these seats.
The boundry cuts are done - at this stage I am waiting to see the final map before making some judements about the Nassau seats, so I will start by rating those in the Out Islands. A few thoughts on the cuts - of course there was Gerrymandering. There always is - the FNM did it, the PLP did it before them and the UBP did it. Politicians always will. It can be a double-edged sword - if you try to protect too many of your incumbents, you may dilute your strenght and lose more seats than you otherwise might. I think the FNM was sensible not to make too much of a fuss about it, but one wishes they would change the system. Here's my proposal for a boundary commision:

One MP of the Governing Party
One MP of the Opposition Party
One Judge recomended by the Prime Minister
One Judge recomended by the Leader of the Opposition
The Surveyor General of the Bahamas

The Surveyor General is appointed by the Government, so the Governing party would have control in theory, but this position is usually held by a technocrat - not a politician - and along with the two judges, I think you would not see so much of the blatant gerrymandering.

That's my idea - the odds of something like that ever happening? 1 to 1,000,000 - politicians do not like to give up power over anything.