NORTH ABACO

FNM: Hubert Ingraham

PLP: Fritz Bootle

IND: Cay Russell/Mills

Hubert Ingraham first won this seat for the PLP in 1977. The PLP had first captured it in 1972 by four votes so it was not considered a slam-dunk for the PLP then. Many felt that the BDP’s candidate Cedric Parker had a real chance, but ’77 was a good year for the PLP as the opposition had split into two groups – the Bahamas Democratic Party (BDP) and the FNM. In 1982, the reunited FNM nominated Cecil Curling, but he was so sure he was going to get badly beaten; he left Abaco on the morning of the election rather than wait for the results. In the mid ‘80’s, Ingraham split from the PLP and wound up running as an independent in 1987. The PLP made an odd choice to run against him in the person of Wesley Campbell, a man who had run several times for the socialist Vanguard Party. The Vanguard was considered by most Bahamians (though obviously not by Vanguard party members) as a joke and given the party’s admiration of Cuba it also had an inaccurate reputation of being non-Christian. Campbell would have had an uphill struggle against Ingraham anyway, but this crippled him and he lost. At that point, it became clear that North Abaco was not a PLP seat, but an Ingraham seat. When Ingraham joined the FNM and became its leader no one seriously felt it was in danger, even when the PLP gerrymandered Dundas Town and Green Turtle Cay – two Ingraham strongholds – into a new seat called Hope Town. Ingraham won again in 1997 during the FNM’s wave and yet again in 2002 despite the PLP’s counter-wave.

This election sees a rematch between Ingraham and the PLP’s candidate from 2002, Fritz Bootle. Bootle has not been working the seat all that much in the meantime and there is no indication that there would have been a significant swing in any direction.

The X-factor here is the independent candidate Mr. Russell/Mills. While considered a rabble-rouser by some (he was recently arrested for allegedly assaulting the Island Administrator) there is no denying that he has a significant following, particularly among young people. Unlike Ingraham and Bootle, he comes from the southern portion of the seat and can be expected to draw strength from there as well.

None of this helps Mr. Bootle, though. The majority of his supporters would likely support the PLP if he were not running. Russell/Mills has an outside shot at reaching the 17% of votes needed to avoid losing his deposit, but his run all but guarantees a ninth straight victory for Mr. Ingraham.

Rating: SAFE FNM