SOUTH ANDROS

IND: Whitney Basitan

PLP: Picewell Forbes

FNM: Marjorie Johnson

Once considered the bedrock of the PLP, they have been unable to win the seat since Sir Lynden Pindling stepped down in 1997. It was actually held by the UBP prior to the 1967 election when Sir Lynden took a gamble and left his safe seat in Nassau to see if he could pick it up. His gamble paid off; without his effort, the UPB likely would have retained it and held the government for five more years. There is no doubt that he was loved by many in the Kemp’s Bay Constituency; more often than not he defeated the FNM candidate so badly that they would not make the 17% threshold needed to keep their deposit.

The current South Andros seat also includes the former seat of Mangrove Cay, another PLP stronghold. The FNM did not make a serious run for this seat until 1992 and while they did not defeat the incumbent Dr. Norman Gay, they did much better than they ever had before.

In 1997, Mangrove Cay and Kemps Bay were joined into one and Sir Lynden ran against the FNM’s Ronald Bosfeild. Mr. Bosfeild ran a respectable race – the first one against Sir Lynden since 1967, but it was not enough and Mr. Pindling was the only PLP to win his seat in the Out Islands. After the election, with the PLP’s abysmal performance, Mr. Pindling stepped down from parliament, triggering a bye-election. The FNM put up Mr. Bosfeild again and this time he was able to win the seat, the first time a seat had changed hands in a bye-election in over 40 years.

In 2002 there was a three way race between Mr. Bosfeild for the FNM, Vincent Symonette for the PLP and independent Whitney Bastian. Bastian was a former PLP and some in the FNM hoped that he would draw off enough votes from Mr. Symonette to overcome the seat’s PLP bent to allow Mr. Bosfeild to retain it. Mr. Symonette hurt himself badly when he add-libbed a joke during a rally that many felt was crude. After the silver tongue of Sir Lynden this was quite a contrast. Mr. Bastian also poured a great deal of his own money into the race. In something of a surprise, Mr. Bastian came in first, pulling in 38% of the vote.

2007 finds Mr. Bastian running again as an independent to retain his seat. He faces Mr. Forbes, who seems to be a smoother candidate than Mr. Symonette and Mrs. Johnson, who has roots in the area. A lot could happen here; Mr. Bastian has considerable resources and had indicated he will bring these to bear in the campaign. The PLP and the FNM will get their die-hard voters (more of these are PLP than FNM in that seat) and Mr. Bastian will probably pull most of his votes from the PLP, but in the end result, we are likely to see a repeat of the 2002 results. If the FNM were to pull out, Mr. Bastian would have a clear advantage, but as it is his advantage is small.

Rating: LEANING INDEPENDENT.