Out Island Roundup

So far that makes the score 9 for the FNM (3 Safe, 4 Likely and 2 Lean) 1 Independend (Lean) , 4 PLP (1 Likely and 3 Lean) and two toss-ups (one with a PLP advantage). If that sounds unrealistic, remember that even in the 2002 PLP wave, the FNM still won 7 of 16 seats if you count Mr. Cartwright in Long Island. That means that Nassau will, as usual, be the key to the election. The FNM will go into Nassau with a slight advantage in seats, but they must split New Providence if they want to win. The PLP must do a little bit better than split, they must win an outright majority.

One note, I’m sure Mr. Bastian in South Andros has this fantasy where the FNM and the PLP each get 20 seats and he wins his seat. Which party would he choose to side with in that case? Perry Christie successfully kept him from getting the PLP nomination that he so badly wanted in 2002, but that does not mean that he would not align with them if they made him a good enough deal. No doubt both Christie and Ingraham are crossing their fingers that they don’t face that situation the morning after the election.

One other point; yes, I say ‘Out Islands’ instead of ‘Family Islands’ because I’ve always considered that a most retarded term. I don’t know who came up with it, but it’s boneheaded.