BAMBOO TOWN

IND: Tennyson Wells
FNM: Branville McCartney

An interesting seat this one is. The PLP probably could have won it if they had opposed Mr. Wells in '02, but no one predicted a wave of such a big size and they prudently chose to leave him alone. In this they were smarter than the FNM traditionally has been because they've been really stupid in splitting votes before. The whole 1977 election and North Long Island in '82 if you want some examples. Clearly, the PLP doesn't think they can win it on their own this time either since they've left Mr. Wells alone again. So does this give Mr. Wells the advantage? Let's look at the history.

Bamboo Town has tended to be a swing seat. The PLP held it in '77 and '82, but then Mr. Wells won it for the FNM in '87 despite the fact that many other seats in New Providence that the FNM had hoped for did not deliver. In some part this was due to Mr. Wells hard work from '82 to '87 in the seat. Has he kept up on this? I'm not convinced. His numbers were impressive in '02 - 63% to the FNM candidate's pitiful 29%. But Bamboo Town also had the lowest turnout number in whole of the Bahamas. Wells got nearly all PLP votes (other than those who stayed home) as well as some FNM's who felt he'd been screwed over in the leadership race the year before. Will he hold those votes? No way.

I still think he'll get the PLP votes - although I don't expect them to be very enthusiastic about him - but I expect him to get very few of the 'true' FNM votes. Pierre Dupuch - who was in the same situation as well - probably realized that he didn't have a chance to win this time and was smart to retire with a record of 5-0. Wells is risking going out on a low note. Sometimes people run as independents because they are between parties - that was the case with Ingraham and Christie in '87. Christie went back to the PLP before the next election and Ingraham went to the FNM. What is Tennyson Wells future? Does he intened to remain independent forever? How effective is an independent in our system? Not very and Mr. Wells is not all that charismatic. I think he'd have done better to join the PLP or even form his own party. As long as Mr. McCartney has done the work, I see him unseating Mr. Wells

Rating: LEAN FNM