FNM: Phenton Neymour
Like SeaBreeze, South Beach is a bellweather seat. In the past, the FNM has squandered some opertunities, here. In '82 they nominated a rather firey priest named Addison Turnquest who got labeled with the unfortunate nickname of 'The Ayatollah' and in '87 a lackluster and disorganized effort by Henry Bostwick ended his quest to make it back into the house. But in '92, the FNM took it and held it for ten years. The PLP won by a small margin in '02, but it's now one of the few open seats - the incumbent Ms. Marchelle having chosen to retire.
The FNM has to have this seat to win - it's hard to picture them getting to 22 without it. The PLP could afford to lose it and still have a small margin of seats. Phenton Neymour was a founding member of the CDR party in the last election and found out what many before him have discovered - Bahamians don't want a third party for some reason. But he's a hard worker and dedicated - something that's needed in this seat. I think he's got the edge here.
Ranking: LEAN FNM
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