BAIN TOWN AND GRANTS TOWN

PLP: Bernard Nottage
FNM: David Jordine
IND: C Moss

Yes - big fight in Bain Town. Confession time - Bernard Nottage is my favorite PLP. I felt that if they had made him leader in the late '90's we'd have all been better off. I think he's smart, fair, hard working and...best of all...NOT A LAWYER! I had hoped that his quixotic attempt to found a third party might succeed against all the odds, but like so many who have tried before him, he fell short in that goal. I understand why he came back to the PLP though I was hoping he'd join the FNM. If the PLP doesn't win the election, expect a bloody fight to replace Mr. Christie as leader and my money will be on Dr. Nottage. But for him to be in the running, he has to win. Will he?

Okay, the FNM won Bain Town in 1992 even without a big wave - good job by Gregory Williams who worked hard for that victory and held the seat in 1997. But Over The Hill continues to shrink and it got merged with Grants Town - one seat the FNM never managed to win. Few doubted the PLP would win big in '02 and they did. But the conflict came from the fact that two PLP seats were combined into one and two people had been promised nominations. Rev. Moss accepted the compromise that was offered him, but the simple fact is that he was lied to. I doubt that at the time they said it, Mr. Christe and Mr. Robers deliberatly lied - I suspect at that time they meant what they said. But Rev. Moss took them at their word and when they found it convinient to change their minds, they did so. Here, I think, is Rev. Moss' mistake. Clearly, he sat back and waited for the nomination to be handed to him. He should have been working the seat - establishing strong ties with the PLP generals so that if anyone tried to take the seat from him, there would have been a big local protest. The fact that the branch asked for Dr. Nottage shows that Moss' support among the strong and dedicated PLP's isn't very high. Clearly, Mr. Christie felt he could afford for Rev. Moss to run independent and still hold the seat or else he would have put Dr. Nottage elsewhere. Really, I think he's a better fit in the suburbs anyway.

The big question is if Rev. Moss passes the test of being credible enough to win - if not enough people think that he is not, he'll be lucky to get more than 200 votes. Those votes will all come from the PLP and so the FNM should hope that he does well. In fact, they should get some of their money people to quietly fund him, but they should have done that in the last election with the CDR and they didn't. I don't see Moss getting enough traction and without that, he can't steal enough votes for the FNM to win.

Ranking: LIKELY PLP